STS 113 lift-off time estimates

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Nov 09 2002 - 12:44:09 EST

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    STS 113 is scheduled for launch on 2002 Nov 11 UTC. 
    
    Based on the latest ISS elements:
    
    1 25544U 98067A   02313.49653935  .00037299  00000-0  48232-3 0  3528
    2 25544  51.6391  43.3900 0014141 119.2957  60.6628 15.58443020226630
    
    here are my predicted lift-off times for the three days beginning Nov 11:
    
    Shuttle to ISS: Pad 39A Launch Time
    
        Launch     Coplanar    Lift-off
         Date        UTC         UTC
    -----------------------------------
     2002 Nov 11   06:01:25    05:58:33
     2002 Nov 12   05:37:47    05:32:46
     2002 Nov 13   05:14:09    05:10:15
    
    The times are 1 s later than my previous prediction, due to the recent increase in the rate of ISS's orbital decay.
    
    Assuming the ISS elements remain reliable on the dates in question, the predictions should be accurate to within a few seconds.
    
    My lift-off prediction algorithm is statistically derived from past shuttle missions. It is accurate to within 2.5 s for 14 of the
    last 18 shuttle missions to Mir and ISS, beginning with STS 86. It is about 10 s early for STS 106 and 111. It does not fit STS 88
    and 101 very well, which apparently followed different launch-window rules.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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