STS 113 is scheduled for launch on 2002 Nov 11 UTC.
Based on the latest ISS elements:
1 25544U 98067A 02313.49653935 .00037299 00000-0 48232-3 0 3528
2 25544 51.6391 43.3900 0014141 119.2957 60.6628 15.58443020226630
here are my predicted lift-off times for the three days beginning Nov 11:
Shuttle to ISS: Pad 39A Launch Time
Launch Coplanar Lift-off
Date UTC UTC
-----------------------------------
2002 Nov 11 06:01:25 05:58:33
2002 Nov 12 05:37:47 05:32:46
2002 Nov 13 05:14:09 05:10:15
The times are 1 s later than my previous prediction, due to the recent increase in the rate of ISS's orbital decay.
Assuming the ISS elements remain reliable on the dates in question, the predictions should be accurate to within a few seconds.
My lift-off prediction algorithm is statistically derived from past shuttle missions. It is accurate to within 2.5 s for 14 of the
last 18 shuttle missions to Mir and ISS, beginning with STS 86. It is about 10 s early for STS 106 and 111. It does not fit STS 88
and 101 very well, which apparently followed different launch-window rules.
Ted Molczan
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Nov 09 2002 - 12:52:46 EST