From my updated Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11682 = 80- 8 A = Cosmos 1154
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Nov 3 02:59 Nov 5 01:59 +-1d 35.8 S 120.9 W
SatEvo Nov 3 22:20 Nov 4 19:32 +-7h 12.2 S 163.9 E
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1154 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 19 198 x 189 km
1 11682U 80008A 02307.68142677 .03969551 -93808-6 94476-3 0 1423
2 11682 81.1750 320.4478 0006853 226.1373 133.9285 16.29580594794590
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 1154 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 19 188 x 180 km
1 11682U 80008A 02308.04943724 .05848662 20105-1 97444-3 0 91428
2 11682 81.1738 319.9401 0005927 224.6776 135.2746 16.33329988794653
Cosmos 1154 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 19 178 x 171 km
1 11682U 80008A 02308.29426680 .07951755 40982-1 94046-3 0 91422
2 11682 81.1725 319.6006 0005142 223.7016 136.2576 16.36649363794694
Cosmos 1154 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 19 164 x 159 km
1 11682U 80008A 02308.53849906 .13416962 13669+0 88947-3 0 91425
2 11682 81.1709 319.2600 0004084 222.7225 137.2457 16.41596393794731
Cosmos 1154 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 19 153 x 148 km
1 11682U 80008A 02308.66027486 .22550789 43438+0 59966-3 0 91422
2 11682 81.1696 319.0890 0003253 222.2312 137.7437 16.45758119794759
Cosmos 1154 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 19 143 x 140 km
1 11682U 80008A 02308.72102091 .37334494 12929+1 52640-3 0 91428
2 11682 81.1685 319.0032 0002595 221.9847 137.9954 16.49228629794761
Note: I show the decay shifting earlier to just beyond the southbound
equator crossing on the orbit after the one given by the final
SatEvo-predicted elset above. This puts it southbound to the NE of
Australia.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27519 = 02- 42 E = DRTS rocket fairing 1
Final(?) decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Nov 3 19:26 Nov 3 18:58 +-7m 2.0 S 158.0 E
SatEvo Nov 3 22:30 Nov 4 19:51 +-3h 14.2 S 6.0 W
Latest (final?) elset:
DRTS r Fairng1 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 10 230 x 218 km
1 27519U 02042E 02307.30310185 .07921874 24666+0 69157-2 0 1156
2 27519 30.4006 133.2682 0009094 316.3379 53.6428 16.18332591 8429
Note: No elsets have been issued (yet) for the final 7 or 8 orbits of
this object, so my prediction is currently uncertain. I show it decaying
southbound over the SE Atlantic, though SCC's estimate has it northbound
over the western Pacific earlier on the same rev. My SatEvo-predicted
elset for the start of that orbit is:
DRTS r Fairng1 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 10 153 x 149 km
1 27519U 02042E 02307.79206296 1.40271053 27345+2 41360-2 0 91155
2 27519 30.3954 129.4954 0002919 322.2861 37.6934 16.45595161 8507
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Nov 03 2002 - 17:57:38 EST