Decay watch: 2002 November 3

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Nov 03 2002 - 17:49:37 EST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Re: Decay watch: 2002 November 3"

     From my updated Decay Watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11682 = 80-  8 A = Cosmos 1154
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov  3 02:59     Nov  5 01:59 +-1d        35.8 S   120.9 W
    SatEvo     Nov  3 22:20     Nov  4 19:32 +-7h        12.2 S   163.9 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       198 x 189 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02307.68142677  .03969551 -93808-6  94476-3 0  1423
    2 11682  81.1750 320.4478 0006853 226.1373 133.9285 16.29580594794590
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       188 x 180 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02308.04943724  .05848662  20105-1  97444-3 0 91428
    2 11682  81.1738 319.9401 0005927 224.6776 135.2746 16.33329988794653
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       178 x 171 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02308.29426680  .07951755  40982-1  94046-3 0 91422
    2 11682  81.1725 319.6006 0005142 223.7016 136.2576 16.36649363794694
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       164 x 159 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02308.53849906  .13416962  13669+0  88947-3 0 91425
    2 11682  81.1709 319.2600 0004084 222.7225 137.2457 16.41596393794731
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       153 x 148 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02308.66027486  .22550789  43438+0  59966-3 0 91422
    2 11682  81.1696 319.0890 0003253 222.2312 137.7437 16.45758119794759
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       143 x 140 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02308.72102091  .37334494  12929+1  52640-3 0 91428
    2 11682  81.1685 319.0032 0002595 221.9847 137.9954 16.49228629794761
    
    Note: I show the decay shifting earlier to just beyond the southbound
    equator crossing on the orbit after the one given by the final
    SatEvo-predicted elset above. This puts it southbound to the NE of
    Australia.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27519 = 02- 42 E = DRTS rocket fairing 1
    
    Final(?) decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov  3 19:26     Nov  3 18:58 +-7m         2.0 S   158.0 E
    SatEvo     Nov  3 22:30     Nov  4 19:51 +-3h        14.2 S     6.0 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    DRTS r Fairng1   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       230 x 218 km
    1 27519U 02042E   02307.30310185  .07921874  24666+0  69157-2 0  1156
    2 27519  30.4006 133.2682 0009094 316.3379  53.6428 16.18332591  8429
    
    Note: No elsets have been issued (yet) for the final 7 or 8 orbits of
    this object, so my prediction is currently uncertain. I show it decaying
    southbound over the SE Atlantic, though SCC's estimate has it northbound
    over the western Pacific earlier on the same rev. My SatEvo-predicted
    elset for the start of that orbit is:
    DRTS r Fairng1   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       153 x 149 km
    1 27519U 02042E   02307.79206296 1.40271053  27345+2  41360-2 0 91155
    2 27519  30.3954 129.4954 0002919 322.2861  37.6934 16.45595161  8507
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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