Decay watch: 2002 November 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Nov 02 2002 - 07:33:43 EST

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    Extracted from my Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11682 = 80-  8 A = Cosmos 1154
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 30 23:06     Nov  3 18:06 +-2d        55.8 N   173.8 E
    SatEvo     Nov  2 12:05     Nov  5 02:07 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       224 x 218 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02305.83271978  .01699842 -93399-6  93335-3 0  1356
    2 11682  81.1803 322.9623 0004946 214.7904 145.3052 16.19574307794292
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26482 = 00- 50 B = Zi Yuan 2 Long March 4 rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov  1 11:46     Nov  1 11:23 +-7m        41.0 N    22.0 E
    SatEvo     Nov  2 11:55     Nov  1 11:01 +-40m       46.1 N   166.6 W
    
    Final elset:
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       147 x 137 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02305.33019055  .17498761  25455-5  23533-3 0  7214
    2 26482  97.3229  46.6522 0007844 270.1558  89.8903 16.49063177122435
    
    Note: I show this decaying northbound over the northern Pacific
    after the end of the following SatEvo-predicted orbit:
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       135 x 127 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02305.39078264  .44326476  29881+1  32784-3 0 97219
    2 26482  97.3216  46.7236 0005863 269.8984  90.0344 16.53135507122447
    It is possible that it survived to pass southbound over eastern Europe
    later on that rev, which is where SCC places the decay.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27519 = 02- 42 E = DRTS rocket fairing 1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
    SCC        Nov  1 07:45     Nov  4 07:07 +-2d        25.3 N    29.9 E
    SatEvo     Nov  2 12:15     Nov  4 07:04 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    DRTS r Fairng1   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       277 x 263 km
    1 27519U 02042E   02305.93623020  .02925446  90959-2  55450-2 0  1019
    2 27519  30.4022 143.5503 0010904 317.1263  42.8739 16.01669067  8200
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27553 = 02- 50 B = Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov  1 04:22     Nov  1 03:41 +-7m        38.0 N    26.0 E
    SatEvo     Nov  2 12:20     Nov  1 02:52 +-45m       18.7 S   162.9 W
    
    Final elset:
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           152 x 145 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02305.02466301  .16828004  12560-4  35421-3 0   201
    2 27553  51.6172  85.3649 0005810 101.8101 258.2546 16.46535496   312
    
    Note: I show an earlier decay than does SCC. I put it southbound over
    the Pacific on the orbit after the one given by the final elset above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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