Decay watch: 2000 Nov 28

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Nov 28 2000 - 23:57:30 PST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: Iridium 79 postscript"

    A decay across the USA at 08:27-08:31 now looks less likely, but..
    
    Object: #25470 = 98- 51 D = Iridium 79
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov 29 04:24     Nov 29 09:53 +-3h        76.6 N   123.8 W
    SatEvo     Nov 29 07:30     Nov 29 09:23 +-1h         0.0      79.8 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       164 x 158 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.20886140  .21658065 -13287-5  13811-2 0  8894
    2 25470  85.9556 289.2790 0004591 112.0876 248.1609 16.41683963124328
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       156 x 151 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.26973467  .30593780  76004+0  99829-3 0 98893
    2 25470  85.9545 289.2397 0003975 111.8163 248.2260 16.44703193124336
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       142 x 138 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.33049814  .57344058  34300+1  75237-3 0 98893
    2 25470  85.9529 289.2003 0003016 111.5440 248.4881 16.49657950124349
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 9 sec late against my previous 
    prediction. I now predict decay near the northbound equator crossing
    at the end of the final SatEvo-predicted orbit, above. This places it 
    over the Indian Ocean just before it passes over Colombo, Sri Lanka.
    Further around the orbit, and beyond SpaceCom's decay point over the
    Arctic, is sweeps southwards across the USA from western Montana at 
    09:55 UTC to Phoenix, Arizona, at 09:58.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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