Decay watch: 2000 Nov 28

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Nov 28 2000 - 15:22:39 PST

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "#20066 TLE update"

    A decay over the USA is possible...
    
    Object: #25470 = 98- 51 D = Iridium 79
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov 28 22:32     Nov 29 10:20 +-7h        31.0 S   110.6 W
    SatEvo     Nov 28 23:05     Nov 29 08:05 +-3h        40.5 N   102.9 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       191 x 180 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00333.90312584  .08594777 -14507-5  15186-2 0  8837
    2 25470  85.9561 289.4621 0008299 116.2329 243.9809 16.32736002124279
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       186 x 176 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00333.96436216  .12328246  91603-1  18549-2 0 98835
    2 25470  85.9556 289.4231 0007834 115.9636 244.1171 16.34358361124287
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       181 x 172 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.02556360  .14283531  12770+0  18180-2 0 98832
    2 25470  85.9551 289.3841 0007321 115.6939 244.3817 16.35980295124290
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       176 x 167 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.08669934  .17124523  19332+0  17747-2 0 98837
    2 25470  85.9544 289.3450 0006746 115.4238 244.6460 16.37888206124308
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       169 x 161 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.14775628  .21796359  34196+0  17293-2 0 98830
    2 25470  85.9536 289.3059 0006068 115.1532 244.9097 16.40236407124319
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       160 x 153 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.20871244  .31191749  76892+0  13106-2 0 98839
    2 25470  85.9526 289.2666 0005191 114.8820 245.1719 16.43386901124326
    Iridium 79 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  6.0       146 x 141 km
    1 25470U 98051D   00334.26952083  .62589811  36211+1  97597-3 0 98830
    2 25470  85.9511 289.2272 0003816 114.6100 245.4298 16.48582385124339
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 18 sec late against yesterday's 
    prediction but only 0.3 sec late against a prediction I posted on my
    Decay Watch page five hours ago. I show this decaying after the
    northbound equator crossing at the end of the final SatEvo-predicted
    orbit, above. This puts it over N China. If it stays in orbit, there is
    a southbound pass across Canada and the USA that takes it close to
    Thunder Bay, Ontario, at 08:27 UTC, and almost due southwards to New
    Orleans at 08:31. SpaceCom's latest estimate has it lasting well into
    the next orbit that would carry it southwards from near Calgary,
    Alberta, at 09:53 to Phoenix, AZ, at 09:58.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Nov 28 2000 - 15:24:09 PST