Decay Forecast Iridium 79

From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Tue Nov 28 2000 - 04:24:03 PST

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    Report time 12:00 UTC
    
    1998-051D (#25470) Iridium 79
    
    SPACECOM has just released its  1 DAY BEFORE DECAY  message - prepared Nov 28,
    10:44 UTC and shows the decay on
                   29 November, 09:06 UTC +/- 14 hours (85.3S, 327.2E)
    on a descending pass over Antarctica.
    MPM + REENTRY delivers with the last three ELSETs 00333.226...- 00333.349...
    the decay on   29 November, 10:45 UTC +/ 90 minutes (24.2S, 57.4E)
    on a northbound pass over the Indian Ocean.
    The prediction is not easy: We have a relatively high and fluctuating geo-
    magnetic activity and a complex behavior of the decayer itself. Thanks to
    Mike Bevan, Russell Eberst and Rob Matson for their observation reports and
    comments. 
    BTW: My analysis shows a significant higher drag area as one can expect
    with pure random tumbling.
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany
    
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