Decay watch: 2000 Nov 23

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Nov 23 2000 - 12:46:36 PST

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    My Decay Watch page has been updated again...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23824 = 96- 10 E = Raduga 33 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov 23 06:08     Nov 23 03:31 +-1h         5.8 S   137.8 W
    SatEvo     Nov 22 18:20     Nov 22 22:25 +-7h        46.3 N   139.6 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1300 x 207 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00326.91849534  .37094874  88925-5  11887+0 0    16
    2 23824  47.3868 157.3013 0766693  71.1725 297.1085 14.41540941 59376
    
    Note: For some reason SpaceCom has continued to withhold most of the 
    elsets for this object, with none published during the last day or 
    more. This means I have no further data with which to update the 
    prediction I made yesterday that put the decay over the NE Pacific 
    prior to a pass across the USA from the California-Oregon border at 
    22:28 UTC on the 22nd to San Antonio, Texas, at 22:34.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26618 = 75- 17 C = OPS 2439 deb (Jumpseat 4 deb)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov 23 12:49     Nov 23 15:16 +-4h        16.8 S    99.7 W
    SatEvo     Nov 23 20:35     Nov 23 16:36 +-2h        41.8 S   138.8 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   606 x 107 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.38620157  .60729077  78435-5  10067-2 0   164
    2 26618  63.1376 201.1346 0370363 273.4351  82.7945 15.71002766 67446
    
    Note: The latest, and possibly final elset, shows this running 3.1 min
    late against the prediction I posted yesterday. SpaceCom's final
    decay notice has yet to appear. I show this decaying northbound over
    the S Pacific following perigee on the second of these SatEvo-predicted
    orbits:
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   445 x 103 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.57567124  .97691388  11070+1  11284-2 0 90160
    2 26618  63.1287 200.4136 0257325 273.4520  83.6084 16.00153485 67471
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   371 x 101 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.63801164 1.29600680  26794+1  12134-2 0 90167
    2 26618  63.1231 200.1687 0203970 273.4579  84.2113 16.14064398 67489
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   262 x 97 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.69976129 2.34705135  14059+2  14373-2 0 90164
    2 26618  63.1170 199.9203 0125924 273.4639  85.0966 16.34775600 67492
    It is possible that it survived to decay one orbit later, or it might,
    as SpaceCom predicted, have re-entered one orbit earlier.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Nov 23 2000 - 12:48:26 PST