Decay watch: 2000 Nov 22

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Nov 22 2000 - 10:51:34 PST

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "USA 129 elements - major manoeuvre may be imminent"

    SpaceCom has posted a decay notice for #26618 which, as Ted Molczan has
    mentioned in another SeeSat posting, is debris from the hitherto secret
    Jumpseat 4 satellite. See my Decay Watch page for more details on the
    following...
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23824 = 96- 10 E = Raduga 33 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov 22 16:34     Nov 23 01:59 +-6h         5.8 S   114.4 W
    SatEvo     Nov 22 18:20     Nov 22 22:25 +-7h        46.3 N   139.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1300 x 207 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00326.91849534  .37094874  88925-5  11887+0 0    16
    2 23824  47.3868 157.3013 0766693  71.1725 297.1085 14.41540941 59376
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              652 x 176 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00327.78967246 1.09047276  11014+1  85195-1 0 90011
    2 23824  47.3520 152.9753 0350064  75.3031 288.5507 15.51014245 59503
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              566 x 171 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00327.85366559 1.37000328  19898+1  81640-1 0 90016
    2 23824  47.3480 152.6239 0292519  75.6389 287.5904 15.66572742 59511
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              456 x 164 km
    1 23824U 96010E   00327.91690482 1.99573527  51655+1  76107-1 0 90011
    2 23824  47.3430 152.2676 0218371  75.9796 286.4384 15.87186766 59527
    
    Note: SpaceCom appears to be continuing its policy of withholding most
    of the elsets for this object - just posting one each day. Again, the
    elset just issued is already almost a day old so my prediction is even
    more uncertain than usual. I put the decay over the NE Pacific prior to
    a pass across the USA from the California-Oregon border at 22:28 UTC to
    San Antonio, Texas, at 22:34.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26618 = 75- 17 C = OPS 2439 deb (Jumpseat 4 deb)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov 22 14:44     Nov 23 15:01 +-15h       57.3 S   139.0 W
    SatEvo     Nov 22 18:35     Nov 23 14:58 +-8h        51.9 S   127.2 W
    
    Latest elset:
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   1026 x 117 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00327.47048173  .30251469  64558-5  11231-2 0    72
    2 26618  63.1527 204.3441 0653957 272.7709  79.8783 14.98415376 67302
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   889 x 115 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00327.80187134  .37917695  83248-1  11438-2 0 90078
    2 26618  63.1440 203.2125 0562603 272.7960  80.7813 15.21326574 67357
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   828 x 114 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00327.93297822  .41615990  10763+0  11423-2 0 90070
    2 26618  63.1402 202.7536 0521220 272.8065  81.2421 15.31733148 67375
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   761 x 112 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.06316384  .46486619  14647+0  11454-2 0 90078
    2 26618  63.1360 202.2907 0475918 272.8171  81.7475 15.43170341 67394
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   688 x 111 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.19234403  .53299770  21526+0  11555-2 0 90077
    2 26618  63.1313 201.8233 0425317 272.8280  82.3132 15.56004993 67411
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   604 x 109 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.32040096  .63815085  36176+0  11786-2 0 90072
    2 26618  63.1258 201.3506 0366984 272.8393  82.9672 15.70888989 67434
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   502 x 107 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.44715227  .83078048  72550+0  12306-2 0 90077
    2 26618  63.1201 200.8714 0295729 272.8509  83.7688 15.89211589 67458
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   362 x 103 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.57225810 1.37381565  31599+1  13750-2 0 90079
    2 26618  63.1108 200.3838 0196013 272.8629  84.8955 16.15232118 67477
    OPS 2439 deb C                                   243 x 98 km
    1 26618U 75017C   00328.63394835 2.81636687  23610+2  16915-2 0 90070
    2 26618  63.1042 200.1348 0110406 272.8692  85.8678 16.38157225 67484
    
    Note: I think decay is most likely shortly after perigee on the
    penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted orbits. Like SpaceCom, I
    expect this to occur over the S Pacific.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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