Decay watch: 2000 Nov 9

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Nov 09 2000 - 15:11:25 PST

  • Next message: Harro.Zimmer: "The PAM-D decay"

    I have just posted another update to my Decay Watch page, with further
    details of the following decayers...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #2167 = 66- 34 B = OV 3-1 Scout rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov  8 16:28     Nov 12 16:37 +-2d        40.7 S   125.1 E
    SatEvo     Nov  9 22:50     Nov 14 15:43 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    OV 3-1 r                                         330 x 198 km
    1 02167U 66034B   00314.73002250  .02047169  00000-0  17140-2 0  3574
    2 02167  82.2311  75.2784 0099231 235.5698 123.6769 16.03764706435691
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 56 deg S at 01:00
    local time and leaves eclipse over the Arctic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20255 = 89- 78 A = Molniya 1-76
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov  9 04:54     Nov 11 01:03 +-1d        26.2 S   133.3 W
    SatEvo     Nov  9 23:00     Nov 11 00:48 +-8h
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 1-76                                     2637 x 86 km
    1 20255U 89078A   00314.82760821  .62238692  67175-5  95862-3 0  7347
    2 20255  63.2334 310.0522 1648139 247.1258  97.1679 12.75065078 83855
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Molniya 1-76                                     774 x 74 km
    1 20255U 89078A   00315.98348283 2.56605423  34764+1  96345-3 0 97343
    2 20255  63.1160 306.7344 0514535 247.1920 107.2925 15.47624827 84013
    Molniya 1-76                                     552 x 72 km
    1 20255U 89078A   00316.04764191 3.70989211  11605+2  10385-2 0 97347
    2 20255  63.1001 306.4962 0358204 247.1981 108.9788 15.86606748 84027
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 93 sec late against the prediction 
    I posted yesterday. I expect re-entry following perigee on the 
    penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25032 = 97- 67 C = GPS 2-28 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov  9 10:35     Nov  9 12:32 +-7h        17.8 N    14.1 E
    SatEvo     Nov  9 22:30     Nov  9 16:41 +-45m       35.0 N   113.6 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    GPS 2-28 r2                                      267 x 122 km
    1 25032U 97067C   00314.61923997  .16235031  00000-0  27179-3 0  3685
    2 25032  34.8058  96.6847 0110442  69.3242 291.9832 16.29338844 77398
    
    Note: SpaceCom has still to post its final analysis. The latest,
    possibly final, elset shows this running 2.7 min late against the
    prediction I posted yesterday. I show this decaying during a daylight
    pass that carried it between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 16:39 UTC,
    and on across the S USA to Jacksonville, Florida. I put re-entry over
    Arizona, but it could easily have survived to decay further on over the
    Atlantic or near the following southbound equator crossing at 17:03 UTC
    and 28.8 deg W. My predicted elset for this orbit is:
    GPS 2-28 r2                                      215 x 112 km
    1 25032U 97067C   00314.68017247  .96389771  39865+1  78686-3 0 93682
    2 25032  34.8039  96.2313 0078669  69.9789 290.8664 16.41017484 77408
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Nov 09 2000 - 15:13:49 PST