Decay watch: Nov 30
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 30 Nov 1999 22:49:30 +0000
My Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
has another update.
I show the decay of #25014 = 97- 63 B = STEP M4 Pegasus rocket at Nov 30
09:28 UTC +-20m (SpaceCom has Nov 30 10:07 +-43m). My analysis places it
southbound over the S Atlantic off Angola. The track before this took it
over the USA from N California at 08:55 UTC to Minneapolis at 09:01,
Toronto, Canada, at 09:04 and Boston at 09:05. If it survived, it would
have passed SE of Perth, Western Australia, at 09:53 on the way to
Cairns, Queensland, at 10:01, close to SpaceCom's decay point. The final
elset...
STEP M4 Peg r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.66 136 x 129 km
1 25014U 97063B 99334.37212439 .43783977 10882-4 31330-3 0 6278
2 25014 44.9407 19.8483 0005577 334.8566 94.0148 16.52651968119099
... is almost identical to the predicted final elset I posted yesterday,
showing the Pegasus running only 1.7 sec late. The published elset for
the previous rev had it only 0.2 sec early. Thanks for the
(unfortunately) negative observations from its passes over the USA -
this was close.
#1844 = 65-106 B = Cosmos 100 rocket
I predict decay for Dec 1 03:17 +-2h; SpaceCom says Dec 1 04:48 +-7h.
My prediction puts it on a southbound pass over E Canada. The final
predicted orbit...
Cosmos 100 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 12.1 121 x 119 km
1 01844U 65106B 99335.11767618 1.18340259 19030+2 46377-3 0 93160
2 01844 64.9329 272.8975 0001926 254.8371 105.1416 16.57475407861234
... takes it northwards over the W Pacific to Anchorage, Alaska, at
03:07 UTC, then E across N Canada to my predicted decay point over
Quebec. It continues SE to a southbound equator crossing at 03:32 NE
of Recife, Brazil and onwards to the S of S Africa. There is a
northbound crossing of Australia from 04:07 to 04:13 when it passes E
of Darwin. SpaceCom puts decay over N Canada on the next rev.
#25960 = 99- 61 E = Shenzhou debris, very probably the Orbital Module.
I show the decay slipping to Dec 2 00:14 +-7h over the mid-Indian
Ocean on a southbound pass. Earlier in this orbit, it moves SE from N
Portugal at 23:50 UTC to Algiers at 23:52 and onwards across N Africa to
Aden at 00:03.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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