Decay watch: Nov 28

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 28 Nov 1999 17:29:02 +0000

#25957 = 99- 61 B = Shenzhou Long March 2F rocket
  The final elset, with its epoch at Nov 27 18:22 UTC, is inconsistent 
with the decay time given by SpaceCom's final decay Nov 27 17:44 +-1m .
Assuming that the elset is not fictional, I estimate that this decayed
much later at Nov 27 20:30 +-30m just N of New Guinea on the approach to
a southbound equator crossing. I compute the following elset for the
final orbit:
SZ-1 CZ-2F r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       126 x 111 km
1 25957U 99061B   99331.82482544  .61042033  63548+1  19884-3 0 90500
2 25957  42.6053 336.0901 0011012 180.9697 179.0282 16.57974640  1253

#25960 = 99- 61 E = Shenzhou debris (Orbital Module?)
  SpaceCom has issued the first decay notice for this, predicting decay
for Dec 1 22:52 +-2d. I get Dec 1 18:32 +-19h. This now enters eclipse
while northbound near 16 deg N at ~18:30 local time and leaves eclipse
while southbound near 5 deg N at ~05:00 local time.

#1844 = 65-106 B = Cosmos 100 rocket
  My current prediction is for this decay to occur at Dec 1 23:04 +-1d.

#25014 = 97- 63 B = STEP M4 Pegasus rocket
  SpaceCom's current forecast is for decay at Nov 30 06:46 +-1d. I show
the decay at Nov 30 07:55 +-10h.

More details, plus predicted elsets, may be found at
      http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html