SatEvo decay list #88

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 24 Nov 1999 23:34:31 +0000

SatEvo decay list #88  (issued 1999 November 24)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 1999 December 31, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.

I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.

   #    Designation    Name              --- Decay (1999/2000) ---
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24196   94- 29 JX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November  7
 24993   94- 29 ADA STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November  7
 25494   98- 56 D   Eutelsat W2 Spelda             November  7
 22661   93- 16 AG  C 2237 Zenit deb               November  9.0
 25208   87- 68 AK  Meteor 2-16 deb                November 10
 24291   96- 50 A   Microsat                       November 12.78
 24266   94- 29 MR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 13
 23995   94- 29 AQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 14
 22386   92- 93 CB  C 2227 Zenit deb               November 14.8
  5761   71- 15 CD  Cosmos 397 deb                 November 15.0
  4222   69- 97 B   AZUR Scout r                   November 15.39
 24267   94- 29 MS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 16
 22434   92- 93 EB  C 2227 Zenit deb               November 18
 23295   85-116 S   C 1710 Proton deb              November 19    Note 1
 24534   94- 29 WJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 19
 24531   94- 29 WF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 20
 22360   92- 93 AZ  C 2227 Zenit deb               November 20.5
 22897   83- 75 P   Cosmos 1484 deb                November 21.6
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat                      November 21.73
 25958   99- 61 C   Shenzhou deb                   November 21.8
 24064   94- 29 DM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 22    Note 1
 16197   85- 99 E   Molniya 1-65 r2                November 22.17
 25959   99- 61 D   Shenzhou deb                   November 22.55 Note 1
 25934   99- 55 B   GPS 2R-3 Delta 2 r1            November 22.94
 22016   92- 39 C   GPS 2-14 Delta r2              November 23.51
 22847   92- 38 C   Sampex Scout G-1 deb  November 24.5
 19579   78-110 AK  C 1045 SL-14 deb      November 26? Note 2
  7853   72- 58 Z   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb   November 27
 14610   83-113 E   DMSP F7 deb           November 27
 25957   99- 61 B   Shenzhou CZ-1F r      November 27
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r          November 28
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r     November 30
 25960   99- 61 E   Shenzhou Orbital Mod? November 30
 25923   99- 52 B   Tlstr 7 Ariane r      December  1
 22365   92- 93 BE  C 2227 Zenit deb      December  3   
 22534   93- 11 D   Astro D M-3S2 deb     December  3
 22334   92- 93 X   C 2227 Zenit deb      December  4
 25058   65- 98 L   Alouette 2 deb        December  6
 24034   94- 29 CF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  8
 24109   94- 29 FG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  9
  4869   70- 25 EZ  Thorad Agena D deb    December 11
  4981   70- 25 HB  Thorad Agena D deb    December 11
  7960   72- 58 CQ  Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb   December 12
 21960   85-118 M   C 1710 SL-12 deb      December 12
 23008   92- 93 JE  C 2227 Zenit deb      December 13
 25790   99- 34 B   QuikScat Titan 2 r    December 13
 24372   94- 29 PZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 14
 24084   94- 29 EF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 15
 23935   78- 96 F   Tiros N deb           December 17
 19377   88- 69 A   Molniya 1-73          December 18
 24225   94- 29 KY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 18
  1832   65- 82 DX  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 20
  3343   68- 66 E   Explr 39 Scout deb    December 20
 16308   79- 17 BX  Solwind deb           December 20
 24522   94- 29 UW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 22
 15707   83- 44 AA  Cosmos 1461 deb       December 28
  7847   72- 58 T   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb   December 30
 14447   71- 15 CR  Cosmos 397 deb        December 30
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1               January  3
 13964   83- 25 A   Molniya 1-57           January  8?
 16885   86- 57 A   Molniya 1-67           January 15?
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r           January 18
 11474   79- 70 A   Molniya 1-44           January 20?
  9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r          February  3
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February  4
 25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r   February  4
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     February  5
 25769   99- 30 B   Starshine             February  8
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                   February 16
 25947   99- 58 E   Glblstar 31 Soyuz r   February 22
 11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              March
 15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             March
 22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r            March
 25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r      March

Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.

2. No recent elsets.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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