Decay watch: Nov 20

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 20 Nov 1999 18:01:11 +0000

My Decay Watch page at
      http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
carries updated predictions for four decaying objects, including the
Long March rocket that launched (what is presumably) an unmanned Chinese
spacecraft late yesterday (UTC).

#22016 = 92- 39 C = GPS 2-14 r2
  My decay prediction is revised to Nov 23 22:33 UTC +-19h

#25551 = 98- 69 C = MightySat
  I predict this decay for Nov 21 16:02 +-7h, which is 3 hours before
SpaceCom's estimate. I show it decaying on a daylight pass across Canada
and the USA from calgary, Alberta, at 15:54 UTC to Detroit, Michigan, at 
15:59 and Washington DC at 16:01. Earlier, it crosses Australia in
eclipse from SE of Perth, W Australia, at 15:19 to the Gulf of
Carpentaria at 15:26. My prediction for the final elset:
MightySat        1.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d 0.25       119 x 117 km
1 25551U 98069C   99325.64617369  .86282384  18871+2  29447-3 0 93685
2 25551  51.5347  83.7527 0001257 295.2316  64.7553 16.58062370 55660

#25934 = 98- 55 B = GPS 2R-3 Delta 2 r1
  Still nothing from SpaceCom regarding this decay. My current
prediction indicates decay at Nov 22 23:40 +-17h.

#25957 = 98- 61 B = Long March 2F rocket? 
  The SpaceCom decay notice identifies this as a Chinese "CSHL-05 R/B".
The payload is unidentified at present but presumed to be an unmanned
"Project 921" spacecraft. There are still too few elsets to make a
reliable decay prediction but I calculate decay at Nov 28 03:45 +-3d
while SpaceCom says Nov 29 08:08 +-5d. This enters eclipse while
northbound near 18 deg S latitude at ~19:30 local time. Eclipse exit
occurs while southbound near 37 deg N at ~06:00 local time.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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