SatEvo decay list #87

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 7 Nov 1999 16:45:08 +0000

SatEvo decay list #87  (issued 1999 November 7)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 1999 December 15, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.

I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.

   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24349   94- 29 PA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 23
 25550   98- 69 B   SAC-A                           October 25.02
 24744   97- 10 A   Zeya                            October 25.08
 25921   99- 51 C   Ikonos Athena deb               October 25.08
  5093   70- 91 AQ  Cosmos 375 deb                  October 26.5
 13738   82-118 C   DMSP F6 deb                     October 26.5
 24355   94- 29 PG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 27
  5533   71- 15 BX  Cosmos 397 deb                  October 30.5
 24586   94- 29 YN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 30
 25953   99- 54 E   Resurs F-1 M deb                October 31.23
 24128   94- 29 GB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 31    Note 1
 24590   94- 29 YS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 31    Note 1
 24152   94- 29 HB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November  1    Note 1
 23563   91- 47 E   PAM-D deb                      November  1.7  Note 1
 24832   97- 28 E   C 2344 SOZ ullage r            November  1.99
 23977   94- 29 X   STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November  2
 24972   97- 57 B   IRS-1D r                       November  4.40
 18128   87- 53 C   DMSP F8 deb                    November  4.9
  7944   72- 58 CK  Lansat 1 Delta 1 deb           November  6.5  Note 1
 24196   94- 29 JX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  7
 24993   94- 29 ADA STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  7
 25494   98- 56 D   Eutelsat W2 Spelda    November  7
 22661   93- 16 AG  C 2237 Zenit deb      November  9
 25208   87- 68 AK  Meteor 2-16 deb       November  9
 16197   85- 99 E   Molniya 1-65 r2       November 12? Note 2
 24291   96- 50 A   Microsat              November 13
 23995   94- 29 AQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 15
 24266   94- 29 MR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 15
  5761   71- 15 CD  Cosmos 397 deb        November 16
 22386   92- 93 CB  C 2227 Zenit deb      November 17
 24267   94- 29 MS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 17
 22434   92- 93 EB  C 2227 Zenit deb      November 18
  4222   69- 97 B   AZUR Scout r          November 19
 22016   92- 39 C   GPS 2-14 Delta r2     November 20
 24534   94- 29 WJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 22
 22897   83- 75 P   Cosmos 1484 deb       November 23
 24531   94- 29 WF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 23
 22360   92- 93 AZ  C 2227 Zenit deb      November 24
 22534   93- 11 D   Astro D M-3S2 deb     November 24
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat             November 24
 22847   92- 38 C   Sampex Scout G-1 deb  November 25
 24064   94- 29 DM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 26
 23295   85-116 S   C 1710 Proton deb     November 27
 25934   99- 55 B   GPS 2R-3 Delta 2 r1   Npvember 28
 14610   83-113 E   DMSP F7 deb           November 30
  7853   72- 58 Z   Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb   December  1
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r     December  4
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r          December  7
 22334   92- 93 X   C 2227 Zenit deb      December  9
 24109   94- 29 FG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 12
 19377   88- 69 A   Molniya 1-73          December 23
 25790   99- 34 B   QuikScat Titan 2 r    December 30
                                           (2000)
 11474   79- 70 A   Molniya 1-44           January  8?
 13964   83- 25 A   Molniya 1-57           January 10?
 16885   86- 57 A   Molniya 1-67           January 15?
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1               January 16
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r           January 17
  9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r          February
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     February
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           February
 25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r   February
 25769   99- 30 B   Starshine             February
 11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              March
 15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             March
 22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r            March
 25947   99- 58 E   Gstar31? Soyuz r         March
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      April


Notes

1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.

2. At present, #16197 = Molniya 1-65 r2 appears to be lost. The latest 
elsets, dated October 17, suggest that the perigee height was 92 km. 
Luni-solar effects should have forced the perigee another 10 km lower
since then.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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