MSTI decay imminent

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 28 Nov 1998 22:52:33 +0000

The latest elset ...

MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            141 x 136 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.83721961  .19317511  24025-5  22512-3 0  9498
2 23101  97.0035 178.1464 0004102 261.9401  98.1350 16.50263207259165

indicates that it was but 1.4 seconds early against the "9945" evolution
I posted earlier today.

I now favour decay at the southbound equator crossing over the Brazilian
rainforest near 65 deg west longitude at 23:43 UTC. It might survive to
the following northbound (ascending node) crossing at 104 deg E at 00:27
UTC and perhaps beyond. Harro's decay prediction for the northbound
crossing at 23:00 is also quite possible. I note that the orbit takes it
southwards over Newfoundland at 23:31 UTC, over the Lesser Antilles in
the eastern Caribbean 8 minutes later and onwards over Venezuela
(23:41), Brazil, the Peru/Bolivia border (23:47) and down the length of
Chile.

Should it survive until the next rev, its track would take it close to
Niagara Falls and Buffalo, NY, at 00:59 UTC and southwards to the
Florida Panhandle at 01:02.

My predicted elsets:

MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            133 x 129 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.89779799  .31101927  11326+1  23892-3 0 99498
2 23101  97.0025 178.2148 0003075 261.6807  98.2844 16.53040407259177
MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            116 x 114 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.95824774 1.01775935  26946+2  34651-3 0 99493
2 23101  97.0005 178.2833 0001444 261.4204  98.5632 16.59211420259183

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
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