Re: Decay watch: MSTI 2 & Molniya 3-11

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 27 Nov 1998 21:18:50 +0000

Against the prediction I posted yesterday, MSTI 2 was running 5 seconds
late at the epoch of the latest elset:

MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            186 x 181 km
1 23101U 94028A   98331.55532441  .03129027  23044-5  52386-3 0  9396
2 23101  97.0045 176.7200 0003488 203.9649 156.1514 16.33345382258953

My new analysis suggests a slip in its decay to November 28.9 +-0.25
day.

Prediction:

MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            175 x 172 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.04490407  .04822333  16042-1  54170-3 0 99395
2 23101  97.0032 177.2597 0002783 201.9167 158.0714 16.37195218259032
MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            168 x 165 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.28920645  .06444577  30399-1  53323-3 0 99395
2 23101  97.0022 177.5302 0002354 200.8897 159.1007 16.39906539259079
MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            157 x 155 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.53303465  .09503258  64636-1  40864-3 0 99390
2 23101  97.0009 177.8014 0001828 199.8600 160.1329 16.43686807259113
MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            139 x 138 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.77613901  .21544083  45918+0  25724-3 0 99398
2 23101  96.9985 178.0735 0001071 198.8261 161.1699 16.50340873259152
MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            130 x 129 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.83672096  .35429646  15035+1  25356-3 0 99396
2 23101  96.9974 178.1419 0000774 198.5666 161.4306 16.53634256259168

            ---------------------------------------

Molniya 3-11 was 5 seconds early on yesterdays prediction at...

Molniya 3-11                                     4188 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A   98331.44520424  .20232657  12293-4  50530-3 0   442
2 11240  61.9829 347.2272 2406324 284.5899  50.4111 11.04594853149037

My current estimate for decay remains as December 3.5 +- 2 days.

Updated prediction:

Molniya 3-11                                     3936 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A   98332.07236170  .21415243  88546-2  51229-3 0 90446
2 11240  61.9821 346.0016 2292141 284.7247  51.1379 11.29584978149107
Molniya 3-11                                     3747 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A   98332.51147223  .22669584  10230-1  52354-3 0 90449
2 11240  61.9814 345.1112 2204389 284.8226  51.9285 11.48929854149157
Molniya 3-11                                     3517 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A   98333.02853357  .24412494  12348-1  53929-3 0 90447
2 11240  61.9806 344.0253 2094781 284.9421  52.9228 11.73246081149210

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/