Decay watch: MSTI 2 & Molniya 3-11

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 26 Nov 1998 23:51:49 +0000

The latest official word on MSTI 2 is:

MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            197 x 192 km
1 23101U 94028A   98330.81916662  .02160930  22739-5  52907-3 0  9357
2 23101  97.0178 175.9200 0003633 209.8093 150.2996 16.29350697258837

This shows it running 4 seconds late on yesterday's prediction. My
latest SatEvo analysis points to decay at November 28.8 +-0.4 day.

Predicted elsets:

MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            194 x 190 km
1 23101U 94028A   98331.00334197  .02596120  42151-2  58270-3 0 99355
2 23101  97.0175 176.1219 0003458 209.0448 150.9359 16.30306341258860
MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            185 x 181 km
1 23101U 94028A   98331.55524149  .03582352  84344-2  58256-3 0 99350
2 23101  97.0163 176.7285 0002870 206.7472 153.2379 16.33653328258955
MSTI 2           1.0  0.0  0.0  8.3 d            173 x 170 km
1 23101U 94028A   98332.04468967  .05577921  21948-1  57489-3 0 99355
2 23101  97.0148 177.2693 0002222 204.6986 155.2907 16.37982315259039

           --------------------------------------

Molniya 3-11's latest elset is:

Molniya 3-11                                     4575 x 90 km
1 11240U 79004A   98330.52388884  .16689989  11032-4  45985-3 0   416
2 11240  61.9839 348.9340 2574231 284.4232  48.2513 10.68005627148939

This has it 57 seconds late on the forecast I posted here yesterday. My
new prediction is for decay at December 3.5 +- 2 days.

Prediction (with perhaps the perigee perhaps ~3 km too low):

Molniya 3-11                                     4348 x 87 km
1 11240U 79004A   98331.08025912  .19132085  66448-2  43316-3 0 90415
2 11240  61.9833 347.9116 2478654 284.5355  49.4517 10.89463967148993
Molniya 3-11                                     4163 x 87 km
1 11240U 79004A   98331.53568464  .20099012  75439-2  44053-3 0 90412
2 11240  61.9827 347.0475 2396688 284.6305  50.1812 11.07321591149048
Molniya 3-11                                     3939 x 87 km
1 11240U 79004A   98332.07242217  .21414077  88438-2  45077-3 0 90410
2 11240  61.9819 345.9952 2295117 284.7462  51.0907 11.29584288149106

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/