SatEvo decay list #65

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 14 Nov 1998 22:52:06 +0000

SatEvo decay list #65  (issued 1998 November 14)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by December 31, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, the Shuttle, and 
all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24090   94- 29 EM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 29
 18872   77- 65 FW  Himawari 1 Delta deb            October 30?
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor                      November  1.85
 24785   95-  8 L   Cosmos 2306 deb                November  2.31
 24789   95-  8 M   Cosmos 2306 deb                November  3.0
 24850   94- 29 ACA STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November  4?
 25524   98- 65 C   PAS 8 Proton platform          November  4.8?
 23084   89- 89 CF  COBE deb                       November  5
 25523   98- 65 B   PAS 8 Proton r                 November  6.04
 24077   94- 29 DY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November  6
 25457   87- 68 CE  Meteor 2-16 deb                November  7?
 25483   98- 53 J   Orbcomm 21 Pegasus r           November  7.56
 24142   94- 29 GR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November  8
 24087   94- 29 EJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 10
 25231   87- 68 BJ  Meteor 2-16 deb                November 11
 25335   94- 29 ADL STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 11?
 24782   95-  8 H   Cosmos 2306 deb                November 12.6
 24218   94- 29 KR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 13?
 24520   94- 29 VU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 13?
 20546   90- 28 A   Pegsat                         November 14.21
 23067   89- 89 BN  COBE deb              November 14?
 25229   87- 68 BG  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 17?
 22528   93- 10 H   C 2234 aux motor      November 18
 25251   87- 68 BU  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 18
 24069   94- 29 DS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 19
 24269   94- 29 MU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 19
 23078   89- 89 BZ  COBE deb              November 20?
 24942   94- 29 ACE STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 21
 24603   94- 29 ZF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 22
 25458   87- 68 CF  Meteor 2-16 deb       November 22
 23772   95- 11 K   SFU deb               November 24
 24781   95-  8 G   Cosmos 2306 deb       November 24
 24008   94- 29 BD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 25
 21337   75- 52 BF  Nimbus 6 Delta deb    November 26
 23101   94- 28 A   MSTI 2                November 26
 23316   94- 65 D   Solidar. Ariane deb   November 26
 24237   94- 29 LL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 27
 25294   86- 17 MQ  Mir VDU               November 28
 25232   87- 68 BK  Meteor 2-16 deb       December  2
 22439   92- 93 EG  C 2227 Zenit deb      December  3
  8368   75-100 C   GEOS 1 Delta 1 r2     December  4
 11240   79-  4 A   Molniya 3-11          December  6
 24101   94- 29 EY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  6
 24816   95- 71 D   Cosmos 2326 deb       December  6
 25210   87- 68 AM  Meteor 2-16 deb       December  6
 24264   94- 29 MP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  7
  3508   68- 91 E   Cosmos 249 deb        December 12
 22928   93- 77 B   Telstar 401 Centaur r December 12
 24542   94- 29 WS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 14
 25230   87- 68 BH  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 14
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 16
  9794   70- 102 F  Cosmos 381 r deb      December 17
 25362   94- 29 ADP STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 18?
 23083   89- 89 CE  COBE deb              December 22?
 24345   94- 29 NW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 22
 24159   94- 29 HJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 23
  2988   65- 82 MT  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 24
  9974   68- 97 DW  Cosmos 252 deb        December 24
 25213   87- 68 AQ  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 24
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6            December 25
  4610   70- 25 N   Nimbus 4 Agena deb    December 25
  2988   65- 82 LD  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb       December 27
 24178   94- 29 JD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 27
 24463   94- 29 TL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 27?
 25455   87- 68 CC  Meteor 2-16 deb       December 28?
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r     December 28
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r          December 31
 25190   87- 68 R   Meteor 2-16 deb       December 31
 25120   97- 84 J   Orbcomm 8 Pegasus r    January  3
 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January  4
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 r                January 18
 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2            January 22
 23529   95- 13 B   Intlst 705 Centaur r  February 
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r            February
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r             March
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r             April
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2          April
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r       April
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r               May
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r          May
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                       July    Note 1

Note

1. The predicted decay of Mir (#16609 = 86- 17 A) assumes that 
it is not manoeuvred in orbit before atmospheric drag brings it 
down normally.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/