Re: Decaying Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U rocket
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 21 Nov 1997 20:58:03 +0000
Yesterday I wrote
>A new evolution predicts decay at about November 21.06 (~01:30 UTC) with
>an uncertainty of one hour or so. The evolution runs:
>..
>Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r 151 x 136 km
>1 25060U 97072B 97324.91277177 .20701741 38627+0 28886-3 0 90198
>2 25060 82.3238 249.8546 0011490 85.8663 274.2650 16.48479498 400
>..
>Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r 123 x 117 km
>1 25060U 97072B 97325.03391176 .90628480 13144+2 37625-3 0 90193
>2 25060 82.3209 249.7047 0004443 85.3556 274.6951 16.57530977 429
>
>The final rev above takes it northbound over the central Pacific near
>the dateline and then southwards to the W of Iceland (01:16 UTC), the
>extreme W of Africa (01.28), the equator at 13.5 deg W (01.32),
>Ascension I (01.34) and towards the far S Atlantic. My guess is that
>decay will occur on the southbound leg, perhaps over Ascension.
For comparison, the final two elsets from OIG are:
Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r 154 x 137 km
1 25060U 97072B 97324.91280090 .12594314 -12773-5 19036-3 0 226
2 25060 82.3158 249.8492 0013171 82.1476 278.1359 16.47805630 400
Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r 135 x 113 km
1 25060U 97072B 97325.03414774 .25094872 -12234-5 11916-3 0 238
2 25060 82.3279 249.7319 0016709 352.4488 8.8532 16.55760951 425
respectively 0.6 and 1.1 seconds late on my prediction.
If the final OIG elset were correct, the object may have survived to
decay near the succeeding northbound equator crossing over the Pacific
at around November 21.09 (02.16 UTC). However, I hold to my analysis
(above) of decay about 44 minutes earlier around the southbound
crossing near Ascension I.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
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