Re: Decaying Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U rocket

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 21 Nov 1997 20:58:03 +0000

Yesterday I wrote
>A new evolution predicts decay at about November 21.06 (~01:30 UTC) with
>an uncertainty of one hour or so. The evolution runs:
>..
>Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r                             151 x 136 km
>1 25060U 97072B   97324.91277177  .20701741  38627+0  28886-3 0 90198
>2 25060  82.3238 249.8546 0011490  85.8663 274.2650 16.48479498   400
>..
>Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r                             123 x 117 km
>1 25060U 97072B   97325.03391176  .90628480  13144+2  37625-3 0 90193
>2 25060  82.3209 249.7047 0004443  85.3556 274.6951 16.57530977   429
>
>The final rev above takes it northbound over the central Pacific near
>the dateline and then southwards to the W of Iceland (01:16 UTC), the
>extreme W of Africa (01.28), the equator at 13.5 deg W (01.32),
>Ascension I (01.34) and towards the far S Atlantic. My guess is that
>decay will occur on the southbound leg, perhaps over Ascension.

For comparison, the final two elsets from OIG are:
Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r                             154 x 137 km
1 25060U 97072B   97324.91280090  .12594314 -12773-5  19036-3 0   226
2 25060  82.3158 249.8492 0013171  82.1476 278.1359 16.47805630   400
Resurs-F1M Soyuz-U r                             135 x 113 km
1 25060U 97072B   97325.03414774  .25094872 -12234-5  11916-3 0   238
2 25060  82.3279 249.7319 0016709 352.4488   8.8532 16.55760951   425
respectively 0.6 and 1.1 seconds late on my prediction.

If the final OIG elset were correct, the object may have survived to
decay near the succeeding northbound equator crossing over the Pacific
at around November 21.09 (02.16 UTC). However, I hold to my analysis
(above) of decay about 44 minutes earlier around the southbound
crossing near Ascension I.

Alan
-- 
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