Re: Cosmos 2326 decay update
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 7 Nov 1997 07:52:49 +0000
Further elsets from OIG do not support my claim that there was a 20%+
increase in drag on the morning of the 6th. Rather, it seems, I may have
been misled by a rogue elset (at 97310.53) which I cannot get to "fit"
with my evolutions through its neighbours.
The latest elset from OIG is
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 225 x 171 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.08507123 .03619616 73587-5 74008-3 0 3367
2 23748 65.0006 322.8037 0041354 265.9618 93.6832 16.28062199106914
which is 17 seconds late with respect to my "9327" evolution.
My latest ("9331") evolution, below, ignores the 97310.53 elset and
leads to decay around November 8.2. The expected geomagnetic storm
arrived about midnight, however, so Cosmos 2326 could well begin to run
early against this prediction and its decay could yet occur on the 7th.
Predictions:
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 206 x 165 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.51447904 .06313331 23899-1 90734-3 0 93318
2 23748 64.9985 321.1704 0030908 267.0405 92.6058 16.32628092106982
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 192 x 159 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.75925644 .08927679 52777-1 91081-3 0 93317
2 23748 64.9973 320.2360 0025106 266.9224 92.7903 16.36276198107024
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 172 x 149 km
1 23748U 95071A 97312.00336095 .16082551 17339+0 62143-3 0 93312
2 23748 64.9955 319.2981 0017501 266.8040 92.9957 16.42042164107062
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 140 x 130 km
1 23748U 95071A 97312.18565802 .53150783 33352+1 44613-3 0 93311
2 23748 64.9922 318.5906 0008016 266.7148 93.1935 16.51750003107094
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
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