Cosmos 2326 decay update
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 6 Nov 1997 23:40:25 +0000
OIG's latest elset for this is
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 237 x 176 km
1 23748U 95071A 97310.65464837 .03186060 00000-0 83943-3 0 3346
2 23748 65.0048 324.4230 0045820 265.1675 94.4176 16.24901566106837
which has it 10.8 seconds early against my "9315" evolution of
yesterday.
My analysis of this and preceding elsets suggests that there was an
increase in drag of at least 20% this morning with the result that the
projected decay is now about November 7.9. Until further elsets appear,
the actual extent and duration of the drag increase will be uncertain,
as will the decay time. I'd like to be able to claim that the drag
increase is due to the geomagnetic storm expected today and tomorrow,
but there is little sign of that yet in the geomagnetic indices I have
seen.
The following evolution should be better than nothing, but beware that
it might be a minute or more early by November 7.5 (97311.5). By then,
however, I should have been able to post a further update.
My "9327" SatEvo evolution...
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 219 x 173 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.02346639 .05623723 17489-1 11465-2 0 93271
2 23748 64.9993 323.0333 0035167 266.9688 92.6288 16.28801379106906
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 213 x 170 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.14621699 .06371613 23654-1 11518-2 0 93275
2 23748 64.9988 322.5680 0032582 266.9099 92.7172 16.30269465106925
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 207 x 168 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.26884995 .07391141 32914-1 11565-2 0 93278
2 23748 64.9982 322.1021 0029776 266.8510 92.8082 16.31950225106947
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 200 x 165 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.39134674 .08870126 49196-1 11594-2 0 93272
2 23748 64.9976 321.6354 0026681 266.7921 92.9027 16.33929770106965
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 191 x 160 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.51368034 .11228055 82184-1 11579-2 0 93274
2 23748 64.9969 321.1679 0023180 266.7330 93.0018 16.36363220106986
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 179 x 155 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.63580725 .15644967 17990+0 99198-3 0 93273
2 23748 64.9957 320.6994 0019055 266.6739 93.1081 16.39579659107008
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 163 x 145 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.75764535 .25886128 51420+0 68802-3 0 93271
2 23748 64.9942 320.2293 0013756 266.6146 93.2281 16.44412091107021
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 150 x 137 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.81840262 .41442858 15326+1 58330-3 0 93277
2 23748 64.9930 319.9934 0010123 266.5848 93.2994 16.48331411107030
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/