Re: Decay Watch: Cosmos 2326

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 5 Nov 1997 23:49:14 +0000

Ron Lee reported
>Observed #23748 at 12:08:24.6 UT crossing by Mizar in U Ma.
>Date 5 nov 97.
>
>It was basically on track but 8 seconds early using Alan's
>309.54457 SatEvo elset.   It did seem to fluctuate, untimed
>long period.  Magnitude about 2.0 max.

The latest OIG elset predates Ron's observation by 6 hours:
Cosmos 2326      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            266 x 188 km
1 23748U 95071A   97309.23545740  .02085106  71901-5  92627-3 0  3273
2 23748  65.0031 329.7388 0059263 267.8183  91.6239 16.17371923106615
showing it running 3.8 seconds early at that time.

A new analysis satisfies this equator crossing, appears to be in good
agreement with Ron's observation, and leads to decay around November
8.3. The expected geomagnetic storm on the 6th-7th could give it a bumpy
ride, however, and I suspect that it may well decay on the 7th.

New predictions from my "9315" evolution:
Cosmos 2326      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            259 x 187 km
1 23748U 95071A   97309.54449210  .02189908  21686-2  91803-3 0 93150
2 23748  65.0043 328.5895 0054610 267.5536  91.8211 16.18652214106661
Cosmos 2326      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            250 x 184 km
1 23748U 95071A   97310.03843323  .02564621  29285-2  92940-3 0 93154
2 23748  65.0035 326.7433 0049399 267.3194  92.1151 16.20992592106741
Cosmos 2326      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            238 x 181 km
1 23748U 95071A   97310.53160071  .03107728  46242-2  93513-3 0 93152
2 23748  65.0026 324.8932 0043578 267.0848  92.4165 16.23769538106822
Cosmos 2326      6.0  0.0  0.0  4.2 v            224 x 176 km
1 23748U 95071A   97311.02383172  .04049283  87998-2  94480-3 0 93155
2 23748  65.0015 323.0383 0036863 266.8497  92.7285 16.27241592106901

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
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