Re: Decay Watch: Cosmos 2326
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 5 Nov 1997 23:49:14 +0000
Ron Lee reported
>Observed #23748 at 12:08:24.6 UT crossing by Mizar in U Ma.
>Date 5 nov 97.
>
>It was basically on track but 8 seconds early using Alan's
>309.54457 SatEvo elset. It did seem to fluctuate, untimed
>long period. Magnitude about 2.0 max.
The latest OIG elset predates Ron's observation by 6 hours:
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 266 x 188 km
1 23748U 95071A 97309.23545740 .02085106 71901-5 92627-3 0 3273
2 23748 65.0031 329.7388 0059263 267.8183 91.6239 16.17371923106615
showing it running 3.8 seconds early at that time.
A new analysis satisfies this equator crossing, appears to be in good
agreement with Ron's observation, and leads to decay around November
8.3. The expected geomagnetic storm on the 6th-7th could give it a bumpy
ride, however, and I suspect that it may well decay on the 7th.
New predictions from my "9315" evolution:
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 259 x 187 km
1 23748U 95071A 97309.54449210 .02189908 21686-2 91803-3 0 93150
2 23748 65.0043 328.5895 0054610 267.5536 91.8211 16.18652214106661
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 250 x 184 km
1 23748U 95071A 97310.03843323 .02564621 29285-2 92940-3 0 93154
2 23748 65.0035 326.7433 0049399 267.3194 92.1151 16.20992592106741
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 238 x 181 km
1 23748U 95071A 97310.53160071 .03107728 46242-2 93513-3 0 93152
2 23748 65.0026 324.8932 0043578 267.0848 92.4165 16.23769538106822
Cosmos 2326 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 224 x 176 km
1 23748U 95071A 97311.02383172 .04049283 87998-2 94480-3 0 93155
2 23748 65.0015 323.0383 0036863 266.8497 92.7285 16.27241592106901
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/