Predicting monster Iridium flares

Mike_Spreitzer.PARC@xerox.com
Tue, 4 Nov 1997 11:31:21 PST

We've been hearing that an Iridium's orientation is kept within about 1.4
degrees of nominal.  So predictions based on the nominal orientation can be
quite inaccurate in magnitude.  Can we get more accurate orientation
information?  Surely it must be stored in at least one electronic system (the
on-board one).  Has anyone tried asking for access to this information?
Iridium LLC might actually want to give us this, because reliable predictions
of monster flares could provide some good PR.  A critical issue is how far
forward it can be propagated in time with reasonable accuracy; I have no idea
how long that would be.

Also, could the difference from nominal have suficient regularity to be deduced
(to a useful accuracy) from periodic patterns in observations?