Mars 96(?): more elsets and decay prediction

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 17 Nov 1996 21:06:42 +0000

I posted a message with three OIG elsets and a decay prediction for
#24656 = 96- 64 A a few hours ago but it has yet to be reflected on
SeeSat-L. Meantime, further elsets have appeared and I'm now able to fit
a SatEvo orbit evolution through them. Of course, Vladimir Agapov says
this object is the Block D-2 in LEO, though Spacecom have still not
catalogued another object from this launch. For now I'll call it 
"Mars 96(?)".

The latest four elsets are:
Mars 96?                                         151 x 137
1 24656U 96064A   96322.46689235  .03446689  12560-4  48899-4 0    39
2 24656  51.5251  14.3524 0010353 193.1058 166.9712 16.48166778    97
Mars 96?                                         149 x 137
1 24656U 96064A   96322.52750717  .03882494  12559-4  51023-4 0    40
2 24656  51.5241  14.0069 0009452 194.5731 165.5032 16.48693178   109
Mars 96?                                         146 x 136
1 24656U 96064A   96322.58809741  .03869138  12586-4  47202-4 0    53
2 24656  51.5213  13.6508 0007694 204.7974 155.2667 16.49286694   113
Mars 96?                                         142 x 132
1 24656U 96064A   96322.70920078  .05053773  12602-4  47595-4 0    61
2 24656  51.5372  12.9538 0007989 202.1388 157.9001 16.50809267   134

The final elsets shows it running 6 sec early with respect to the SatEvo
evolution in my previous post. A new SatEvo evolution has a higher ndot
(drag) term but satisfies the equator crossing times for these four
elsets to within 0.1 sec and leads to decay at about November 18.04
(18th at 01h UT). My predicted elsets are:
Mars 96?                                         139 x 130
1 24656U 96064A   96322.76969833  .08122346  79844-1  64823-4 0 90032
2 24656  51.5241  12.6122 0007117 194.4141 165.5656 16.51897605   144
Mars 96?                                         136 x 127
1 24656U 96064A   96322.83017188  .09912296  12558+0  67577-4 0 90035
2 24656  51.5238  12.2635 0006273 194.6763 165.3055 16.52979995   155
Mars 96?                                         131 x 125
1 24656U 96064A   96322.89060119  .12949796  23053+0  72756-4 0 90039
2 24656  51.5234  11.9144 0005298 194.9388 165.0456 16.54342797   163
Mars 96?                                         126 x 120
1 24656U 96064A   96322.95097233  .19468111  58189+0  84343-4 0 90030
2 24656  51.5229  11.5648 0004098 195.2016 164.7868 16.56238785   178
Mars 96?                                         115 x 112
1 24656U 96064A   96323.01125265  .48091829  46920+1  13297-3 0 90035
2 24656  51.5221  11.2145 0002348 195.4650 164.5278 16.59720260   182

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
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