I offer these two possible Kosmos 2553-like search orbits: KOSMOS for launch on 23 May 2025 07:00:00 UTC 1995 x 2000 km 1 70000U 25999A 25143.29166667 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 02 2 70000 067.0000 331.5727 0002985 098.3431 308.5611 11.32598711 04 KOSMOS for launch on 23 May 2025 07:00:00 UTC 2490 x 2500 km 1 70001U 25999A 25143.29166667 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03 2 70001 067.0000 331.6036 0005635 098.3311 312.8260 10.38692631 00 The ~2500 km orbit is a good fit to the Fregat deorbit area south of Australia in terms of location; but not for the time of that window (it would arrive there 1.5 hours "too early"). There can always be clerical errors however. The core stage deorbit area east of New Zealand is somewhat offset to the east: I think there is a deliberate avoidance manoeuver after separation of the Fregat, in order to avoid it falling on New Zealand (it would do so if continuing on its original path). - Marco ----- Dr Marco Langbroek - SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands. e-mail: sattrackcam_at_langbroek.org launchtower: http://launchtower.langbroek.org Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com Twitter: @Marco_Langbroek ----- Op 17-5-2025 om 15:25 schreef Bart Hendrickx via Seesat-l: > A rocket stage impact warning has been issued for the launch of a Soyuz-2 rocket from Plesetsk on May 23 between 07.00 and 09.00 UTC. There will be back-up launch > opportunities from May 24 until May 28 (same window). The warning was issued for residents of the Yamalo-Nenets region in central Russia. This is the impact zone of > the Soyuz-2 core stage for launches into 67° inclination orbits. NOTAMs related to this launch show that the Soyuz-2’s third stage will be suborbital and that the > payload will be delivered to its final orbit by a Fregat upper stage. > > Impact zone for the third stage: > > B3530/25 NOTAMN > Q) NZZO/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/4417S16342W999 > A) NZZO B) 2505230800 C) 2505231000 > E) TEMPO DANGER AREA NZD096 (EAST AUCKLAND OCEANIC FIR) IS > PRESCRIBED AS FLW: > ALL THAT AIRSPACE BOUNDED BY A LINE JOINING: > 30 21 36 S 173 45 36 W > 55 24 36 S 151 46 48 W > 58 12 00 S 158 10 12 W > 31 58 48 S 178 04 48 W > 30 21 36 S 173 45 36 W > ACTIVITY: MISSILE LAUNCH AND DEBRIS RETURN > USER AGENCY: FOREIGN AEROSPACE FORCE > PRESCRIBED PURSUANT TO CIVIL AVIATION RULE PART 71 UNDER A DELEGATED > AUTHORITY ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CIVIL AVIATION > F) SFC G) UNL > > Impact zone for the de-orbiting of the Fregat stage: > > E1388/25 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT > DUE SPACE DEBRIS FALLING INTO OCEAN WI AREA BOUNDED BY: > 595700S 1494200E > 452400S 1381800E > 443600S 1392400E > 590000S 1510000E > 595700S 1494200E > CTC OFFICE OF AIRSPACE REGULATION TEL: 02 6217 1177 OPTION 7. SFC - UNL, > DAILY 1100-1300, 23 MAY 11:00 2025 UNTIL 28 MAY 13:00 2025. CREATED: 15 MAY 00:59 2025 > > The use of the Fregat suggests that the payload will be placed into an unusual, relatively high 67° inclination orbit. This is reminiscent of the launch > in February 2022 of Kosmos-2553, which was inserted into a 67° inclination orbit with an altitude of 2000 km. The satellite is known to have been part of > a project called Neitron. US intelligence believes the satellite tested elements of a space-based nuclear weapon, although there are strong reasons to believe > that its primary mission was military radar reconnaissance. Visual and radar observations indicate that Kosmos-2553 lost stabilization in November last year > and is no longer operational. More on that in the latest issue of the Integrity Flash newsletter: > https://isruniversity.com/2025/05/05/issue-120/ > > One significant difference between the launch of Kosmos-2553 and the upcoming one is the latitude of the third stage impact zone. For Kosmos-2553 this was > located much farther to the north (above the equator): > > 26-13-00N 148-57-00E > 20-14-00N 151-33-00E > 20-02-00N 150-59-00E > 20-14-00N 150-33-00E. > > This may point to a different orbital altitude than the one seen for Kosmos-2553. > > Bart Hendrickx _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list https://lists.seesatmail.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Sun May 18 2025 - 04:13:00 UTC
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