After consulting with Jonathan McDowell about the upcoming Soyuz 2.1a launch from Plesetsk on May 23rd I am very stumped. I have tried to fit different orbits but nothing fit well enough other than a final orbit of 2300km x 2300km x ~74.0. I made the assumption it will launch into a standard ~67.0 deg orbit to avoid overflying China, then an inclination change over the equator to align with a upperstage de-orbit zone south of Australia. CHART AUS 4074 - CAPE DARNLEY TO TASMANIA 1. SPACE DEBRIS DANGER AREA 40NM EITHER SIDE OF CENTRE LINE: 45-00.00S 138-51.00E 59-26.50S 150-23.50E 2. HAZARD PERIOD DAILY 1200 UTC TO 1300 UTC FROM 23 MAY TO 28 MAY 2025. FREGAT 2.1A PO 1 70090U 25999A 25143.29792072 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 9904 2 70090 67.0504 332.1330 1408592 090.8997 008.1573 12.98680000 04 FREGAT 2.1A INC CHANGE 1 70091U 25999A 25143.33472255 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 9908 2 70091 73.9926 332.0740 1399032 090.8069 180.0952 12.97767200 09 FREGAT 2.1A Circ Burn 1 70092U 25999A 25143.33472255 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 9909 2 70092 73.9926 332.0740 0011043 090.8069 180.0952 10.68104800 09 FREGAT 2.1A De-orbit 1 70093U 25999A 25143.38680961 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 9900 2 70093 73.9877 332.0213 1943969 291.2000 180.0000 13.93232000 03 This may be a shot in the dark, relatively hard to replicate. It has to be somewhat close though. If this is close to being accurate, this is a completely new orbital shell and altitude for Russian military satellites. -Dillon _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list https://lists.seesatmail.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Sat May 17 2025 - 14:51:37 UTC
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