Upcoming Russian Military Cosmos launch

From: Dillon Shropshire via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_lists.seesatmail.org>
Date: Sat, 17 May 2025 21:51:27 +0000
After consulting with Jonathan McDowell about the upcoming Soyuz 2.1a launch from Plesetsk on May 23rd I am very stumped.

I have tried to fit different orbits but nothing fit well enough other than a final orbit of 2300km x 2300km x ~74.0.

I made the assumption it will launch into a standard ~67.0 deg orbit to avoid overflying China, then an inclination change over the equator to align with a upperstage de-orbit zone south of Australia.

CHART AUS 4074 - CAPE DARNLEY TO TASMANIA 1. SPACE DEBRIS DANGER AREA 40NM EITHER SIDE OF CENTRE LINE: 45-00.00S 138-51.00E 59-26.50S 150-23.50E 2. HAZARD PERIOD DAILY 1200 UTC TO 1300 UTC FROM 23 MAY TO 28 MAY 2025.

FREGAT 2.1A PO
1 70090U 25999A   25143.29792072  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  9904
2 70090  67.0504 332.1330 1408592 090.8997 008.1573 12.98680000    04
FREGAT 2.1A INC CHANGE
1 70091U 25999A   25143.33472255  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  9908
2 70091  73.9926 332.0740 1399032 090.8069 180.0952 12.97767200    09
FREGAT 2.1A Circ Burn
1 70092U 25999A   25143.33472255  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  9909
2 70092  73.9926 332.0740 0011043 090.8069 180.0952 10.68104800    09
FREGAT 2.1A De-orbit
1 70093U 25999A   25143.38680961  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  9900
2 70093  73.9877 332.0213 1943969 291.2000 180.0000 13.93232000    03

This may be a shot in the dark, relatively hard to replicate. It has to be somewhat close though.

If this is close to being accurate, this is a completely new orbital shell and altitude for Russian military satellites.

-Dillon








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Received on Sat May 17 2025 - 14:51:37 UTC

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