Op 10-5-2025 om 09:39 schreef Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l: > Our last TUDAT reentry model forecast was: > > 10 May 6:39 +- 1.5 hr Roscosmos has issued a message on telegram claiming reentry near 6:24 UTC over the Indian Ocean. That is reasonably in line with our model (15-minute difference). (my e-mail system unfortunately does not let me include the telegram link as that is flagged as canned meat of a certain brand). Question is whether any statement coming from Russia these days can be regarded as reliable. Plus, this will probably also be some model result based on an earlier detection. Meanwhile, the last CSpOC TIP on Space-Track (5:32 +- 12m UTC) cannot be correct as ESA reports a positive radar detection from Germany at 6:04 UTC (and a "no-show" at 7:32 UTC, so reentry must have been between 6:04 - 7:32 UTC and cannot have been before 6:04 UTC). Still hoping for that post-reentry TIP with a 1-min plusminus to appear (the ones Jonathan and I strongly suspect are not modelling results but based on space-based platform detections of the reentry fireball). Not appeared so far. No orbit updates after the one my last forecast was based on either. - Marco ------ Dr Marco Langbroek Lecturer in optical Space Situational Awareness (SSA) TU Delft, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering section Astrodynamics and Space Missions ------ _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list https://lists.seesatmail.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Sat May 10 2025 - 06:25:32 UTC
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