Re: Decay filmed during the show of Paul McCartney ?

From: Marco Langbroek (marco.langbroek@wanadoo.nl)
Date: Wed May 02 2012 - 10:49:29 UTC

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    Op 2-5-2012 3:29, Carlos Bella schreef:
    > On 04.19.2012 took place in El Campin stadium in Bogota, Colombia, a concertof
    > Sir Paul McCartney. During the show the local media filmed an object of
    > cometary appearance over the horizon. The time of the shooting is unclear but
    > the show started by 01:50 UTC and ended at 04:30 UTC
    >
    > - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvaWRIQtoZY
    >
    > On 19/04, according Spacetrack, there was the reentry of Iridium 33 DEB (
    > NORAD 35922) but I could not find the time of this decay.
    
    
    Given that the epoch of the last orbit for this piece of Iridium 33 debris is 
    11299.09920316  (26 Oct 2011), I strongly suspect that the "decay date" of 19 
    april is an "administrative decay" only: it is hard to believe an accurate decay 
    date can be gleaned from such an old elset.
    
    But: would the local evening of 19 April not be 20 April in UTC terms? So that 
    means you should actually look for April 20 candidates.
    
    On the web, I found the TV broadcast started near 00:30 UTC (20 April). In that 
    case, the much discussed Centaur r/b that decayed at 01:23 UTC (20 April) 
    appears to be an option, but only when looking superficially (see below). It 
    passed just north of Bogota at 00:22 UTC (20 April), one orbit before reentry.
    
    HOWEVER: it was still rather (=too) high (almost 300 km altitude) for illuminous 
    phenomena, and passing an hour before the actual moment of decay. So in that 
    sense, even though the time roughly matches and it is an object near decayit is 
    NOT a likely candidate at all! Also take into account that USSTRATCOM puts the 
    decay an hour later, over the western Pacific. This all makes it unlikely this 
    object over Bogota was the Centaur r/b in question.
    
    MOREOVER, assuming the video has not been sped-up (can't really tell, the moving 
    cars in the video look fast but not extremely fast), the object appears too fast.
    
    So again, I'd rather opt for a natural meteoric fireball in this case.
    
    - Marco
    
    
    -----
    Dr Marco Langbroek  -  SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands.
    e-mail: sattrackcam@wanadoo.nl
    
    Cospar 4353 (Leiden):   52.15412 N, 4.49081 E (WGS84), +0 m ASL
    Cospar 4354 (De Wilck): 52.11685 N, 4.56016 E (WGS84), -2 m ASL
    Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
    Twitter: @Marco_Langbroek
    -----
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