RE: STSS-ATRR preliminary elements from observations

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri May 08 2009 - 13:04:29 UTC

  • Next message: Alberto Rango: "4542 PPAS 09 004B"

    I saw neither object last night (2009 May 08 UTC). Conditions were poor - haze,
    illuminated by bright moonlight - still I was surprised not to see the payload
    at 04:18:30 UTC, at a location where it should have been around mag 6 - 7, and I
    could easily see to mag 9 with 25x100 binoculars. Fortunately, Alberto Rango
    observed it hours earlier.
    
    I offer two solutions:
    
    STSS-ATRR                                                864 X 876 km
    1 34903U 09023A   09127.88489887  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
    2 34903  98.9298 226.1078 0008205 251.8764 108.1511 14.06068508    05
    Arc 20090505.9-0507.89 WRMS resid 0.057 totl 0.011 xtrk
    
    Removing two points from the above solution that had unusually high time
    residuals, improved the total residuals:
    
    STSS-ATRR                                                857 X 883 km
    1 34903U 09023A   09127.88491610  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    02
    2 34903  98.8845 226.0325 0018182 301.1228  58.8157 14.06068785    09
    Arc 20090505.91-0507.89 WRMS resid 0.014 totl 0.009 xtrk 
    
    The second solution, if correct, raises the possibility of future manoeuvres to
    further circularize the orbit.
    
    As for the 2nd stage, it did not appear for Alberto on two passes, using my
    71950 search elements (below). Pierre Neirinck made a fairly wide search at high
    elevation, and also did not see it.
    
    1 71950U          09125.95957157  .00247275  00000-0  30000-3 0    03
    2 71950 112.7800 216.3633 0519924 282.5289  71.8193 15.08518086    04
    
    In view of the expected low perigee height, I offer this alternative, with ten
    times greater rate of decay:
    
    1 71951U          09125.95957158  .02472750  00000-0  30000-2 0    04
    2 71951 112.7800 216.3633 0519924 282.5289  71.8193 15.08518086    05
    
    Prediction time uncertainty tonight with 71951 would be around 10 min.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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