RE: SL-4 R/B Re-entry?

From: Ted Molczan (
Date: Tue May 15 2007 - 21:18:11 EDT

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    Ivan Luís wrote:
    > I received people's messages that saw a satellite reentering 
    > in Brazil on the state of São Paulo (04:33 UTC - 01:33 GMT -3). 
    > A person told me that recorded the same. I'm awaiting for the
    > video. In the report the same said that were several traces and
    > that went if disintegrating, of color orange reddened.
    > He sighted the trails to the North, starting from the constellation
    > of Aquila (about 45 degrees height), passing a little below 
    > Altair, between Delphinus and Sagitta, going ties Cygnus, for about
    > 30 degrees, when the trails disappeared. The 30 degrees were
    > traveled in about 10 to 20 seconds. The episode happened at 
    > 1:33 (GMT-3) o'clock.
    > A person that saw sent the following location of the observation
    > "22 47 62 S"
    > "47 04 23 W"
    The description that you provided is consistent with a satellite decay, and I
    agree that the upper stage of the rocket that launched Progress M-60, 07017B /
    31394, is an excellent candidate object.
    The confirming elements are not available at this time, due to an apparent
    problem with the Space Track service. As I write, the site has not received
    updated data since 2007 May 14 at 20:00:51 UTC - about 29 hours ago.
    I ran a couple of the available epoch day 07134 elsets through the Satevo decay
    propagator, one of which resulted in a decay within a minute or so of the
    observation you have shared with us. A decay near that time would have followed
    very nearly the described sky track. 
    Due to the low altitude of a decay, the exact sky track is very sensitive to the
    time of passage. The final USSTRATCOM elset, when it arrives at Space Track,
    should be definitive.
    Ted Molczan
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