Although I sent an update on this decayer to the List yesterday, it has
not (yet) appeared. Here, in full, is my latest notice from my Decay
Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23794 = 96- 10 A = Raduga 33
Russian military communications satellite left on its transfer orbit of
about 250 x 36 500 km x 48 deg. after its Proton-K rocket Blok DM-2
upper stage failed to reignite following launch on February 19, 1996.
(Dimensions unknown Mass : 1925 kg)
Notice prepared: 2004 May 5 21:50 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC May 1 15:12 May 5 06:30 +-2d 13.0 N 170.7 E
SCC May 1 15:40 May 5 06:30 +-2d 11.4 N 169.2 E
SCC May 2 10:22 May 5 05:08 +-2d 41.3 N 53.1 W
SCC May 4 05:11 May 6 00:00 +-1d 33.7 N 36.1 E
SCC May 5 06:34 May 6 03:06 +-13h 36.4 N 16.1 W
SCC May 5 14:45 May 6 03:12 +-8h 37.3 N 19.4 W
SCC May 5 21:21 May 6 04:59 +-7h 19.9 N 22.1 W
SatEvo Apr 29 12:20 May 5 00:38 +-2d
SatEvo Apr 30 18:35 May 5 10:28 +-1.7d
SatEvo May 1 18:45 May 5 16:47 +-1.4d
SatEvo May 2 21:45 May 5 20:24 +-1d
SatEvo May 3 19:10 May 6 02:01 +-20h
SatEvo May 4 18:35 May 5 18:14 +-10h 34.7 N 120.7 E
SatEvo May 5 07:00 May 5 22:08 +-6h 34.8 N 61.4 E
SatEvo May 5 20:30 May 5 23:42 +-4h 46.7 N 3.3 E
SatEvo May 5 21:50 May 6 04:51 +-4h 35.9 N 42.3 E
Latest elset:
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 1771 x 100 km
1 23794U 96010A 04126.70181634 .99999999 24554-4 23324-2 0 5172
2 23794 47.7720 117.6376 1142104 100.7354 270.3454 13.88001319 72275
SatEvo prediction:
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 1650 x 96 km
1 23794U 96010A 04126.77354234 1.22502913 46673+0 22578-2 0 95170
2 23794 47.7659 117.3277 1071578 101.0256 271.1921 14.06041690 72280
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 1529 x 95 km
1 23794U 96010A 04126.84398997 1.33455414 58943+0 22508-2 0 95173
2 23794 47.7594 117.0155 0996812 101.3181 270.0305 14.24043491 72292
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 1400 x 94 km
1 23794U 96010A 04126.91350502 1.47360168 77681+0 22484-2 0 95170
2 23794 47.7524 116.6987 0916329 101.6149 268.8003 14.43520865 72303
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 1262 x 93 km
1 23794U 96010A 04126.98202847 1.66160779 11296+1 22575-2 0 95174
2 23794 47.7446 116.3769 0828383 101.9165 267.4817 14.64923709 72310
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 1110 x 92 km
1 23794U 96010A 04127.04947622 1.93337928 16201+1 22938-2 0 95175
2 23794 47.7384 116.0494 0729738 102.2235 266.0377 14.89048842 72329
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 938 x 90 km
1 23794U 96010A 04127.11572321 2.36065726 28677+1 23645-2 0 95171
2 23794 47.7284 115.7155 0615167 102.5369 264.4095 15.17238783 72336
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 731 x 88 km
1 23794U 96010A 04127.18056167 3.18471481 61198+1 25116-2 0 95173
2 23794 47.7195 115.3735 0473121 102.8578 262.4678 15.52461844 72345
Raduga 33 6.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 17 432 x 85 km
1 23794U 96010A 04127.24352253 6.19391629 50000+2 30075-2 0 95175
2 23794 47.7016 115.0205 0260995 103.1893 259.7354 16.05722856 72356
Note: The latest elset has this running 152 sec late after only two
orbits. It is possible that it has shed some appendages and reduced
its drag. My estimate for the decay has also slipped. I now
place this following perigee on the penultimate SatEvo-predicted rev
above, southbound over the Atlantic after a pass across the USA and
SE Canada from N California at 04:36 UTC to Nova Scotia at 04:46.
The predictions are even more uncertain than ever.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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