Getting up-to-date with recent updates to my Decay Watch page:
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Object: #23178 = 94- 40 D = PAS 2 Ariane Spelda
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC May 14 18:31 May 17 13:19 +-2d 6.2 N 59.0 W
SatEvo May 15 18:20 May 17 19:22 +-15h
Latest elset:
Ariane Spelda 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 31 533 x 170 km
1 23178U 94040D 03135.72199340 .08579282 -30787-4 45631-2 0 1775
2 23178 7.1593 270.9429 0269553 84.2617 278.8122 15.72508191146593
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: Eclipse entry occurs on the approach to southern apex at 7 deg S
in the evening. It leaves eclipse while northbound near 5 deg N before
dawn.
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Object: #25855 = 99- 37 E = Globalstar 32 Delta 2 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC May 15 15:45 May 16 03:16 +-7h 3.4 N 175.5 E
SatEvo May 15 18:30 May 16 01:55 +-4h 28.9 S 136.9 W
Latest elset:
Gbstr 32 Del r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 192 x 161 km
1 25855U 99037E 03135.55641533 .06485848 12487-4 66472-3 0 2841
2 25855 52.0984 282.9008 0023762 314.9187 45.0981 16.35961100207140
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(ends)
Gbstr 32 Del r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 154 x 138 km
1 25855U 99037E 03135.98281547 .30805595 89027+0 47987-3 0 92843
2 25855 52.0953 280.5136 0012058 316.6421 43.2628 16.47438936207213
Gbstr 32 Del r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 12 137 x 127 km
1 25855U 99037E 03136.04339355 .65870391 35283+1 45530-3 0 92844
2 25855 52.0941 280.1699 0007653 316.8902 43.0496 16.52810656207222
Note: I have this decaying southbound over the southern Pacific on the
last of my SatEvo-predicted revs, above.
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Object: #27709 = 03- 11 C = Molniya 1-92 Molniya r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC May 13 09:48 May 13 15:19 +-4h 52.5 S 131.4 E
SatEvo May 14 18:30 May 13 15:08 -20+40m 30.8 S 108.9 E
Final elsets:
Molniya 1-92r1 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 8 215 x 94 km
1 27709U 03011C 03133.47334236 .22796716 00000-0 10194-3 0 1217
2 27709 62.8510 10.0245 0092520 181.9601 176.8965 16.44235400 6541
Molniya 1-92r1 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 8 192 x 107 km
1 27709U 03011C 03133.53401147 .21593844 00000-0 13471-3 0 1228
2 27709 62.8886 9.7525 0065094 245.4167 112.4015 16.46340798 6554
Molniya 1-92r1 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 8 132 x 125 km
1 27709U 03011C 03133.59468160 .41651529 91284-5 24836-3 0 1180
2 27709 62.8480 9.2983 0006021 123.6207 237.5996 16.54177603 6575
Note: Only the final one of the above three elsets seems reasonable.
I estimate that it decayed on that orbit, possibly to the W of Perth,
Australia, following a southbound equator crossing to the W of
Indonesia. SCC's final two reports have yet to appear.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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