Decay watch: 2003 May 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue May 13 2003 - 09:45:44 EDT

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    The decaying Molniya rocket is close to the end as SCC posts the
    initial decay warning for the Globalstar 32 rocket. The following is 
    taken from my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25855 = 99- 37 E = Globalstar 32 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        May 12 22:42     May 16 11:44 +-2d        52.2 N    40.8 W
    SatEvo     May 13 13:30     May 16 14:17 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Gbstr 32 Del r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   12       247 x 190 km
    1 25855U 99037E   03133.34446650  .01909224  11894-4  75501-3 0  2690
    2 25855  52.0962 295.0321 0043561 315.3882  44.4019 16.20351714206787
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 32 deg S in the
    evening and leaves eclipse northbound near 9 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27709 = 03- 11 C = Molniya 1-92 Molniya r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        May 13 09:48     May 13 15:19 +-4h        52.5 S   131.4 E
    SatEvo     May 13 13:20     May 13 15:05 +-90m       20.5 S   103.0 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 1-92r1   4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    8       171 x 144 km
    1 27709U 03011C   03133.41257473  .12077615  86524-5  33773-3 0  1170
    2 27709  62.8557  10.0983 0021212 134.7516 225.5546 16.43113012  6542
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 1-92r1   4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    8       160 x 136 km
    1 27709U 03011C   03133.47332313  .25594740  66244+0  40572-3 0 91175
    2 27709  62.8549   9.8440 0017897 134.7630 225.3828 16.46719084  6554
    Molniya 1-92r1   4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    8       146 x 129 km
    1 27709U 03011C   03133.53397280  .47624173  26925+1  42599-3 0 91178
    2 27709  62.8536   9.5890 0012998 134.7744 225.3314 16.50861907  6567
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay on the orbit following the
    final predicted rev above, possibly following a southbound equator
    crossing to the W of Indonesia on a track that carries it to the
    W of Australia.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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