Taken from the latest update to my Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #20586 = 90- 39 D = Molniya 1-77 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 27 07:43 May 31 02:44 +-2d 56.7 S 20.4 W
SatEvo May 30 18:20 May 31 19:14 +-9h 51.2 S 7.2 W
Latest elset:
Molniya 1-77 r2 2205 x 84 km
1 20586U 90039D 02150.67143397 .72025289 68873-5 87763-3 0 144
2 20586 63.2277 315.0985 1409741 246.1278 259.0069 13.30757019 88279
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(..ends)
Molniya 1-77 r2 993 x 77 km
1 20586U 90039D 02151.56510334 1.65339901 11902+1 86622-3 0 90131
2 20586 63.1448 312.5183 0662721 245.7994 107.1344 15.10411536 88403
Molniya 1-77 r2 688 x 75 km
1 20586U 90039D 02151.69583849 2.45333243 37178+1 93790-3 0 90135
2 20586 63.1262 312.0545 0453325 245.8101 109.3858 15.62138055 88428
Molniya 1-77 r2 477 x 74 km
1 20586U 90039D 02151.75942501 3.70678871 11418+2 10385-2 0 90132
2 20586 63.1154 311.8140 0303109 245.8160 110.9860 15.99716628 88435
Note: I estimate that decay is most likely near perigee on the
penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted revs. This has it approaching
southern apex over the far southern Atlantic.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21990 = 92- 32 B = Intelsat 101 Atlas Centaur rocket
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 30 16:01 May 30 09:14 +-7m 10.2 S 113.1 W
SatEvo May 29 20:05 May 30 12:14 +-2h 8.2 S 154.21 W
Final elset:
Intl 101 Cen r 8.6 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 22 441 x 120 km
1 21990U 92032B 02150.14278471 .42027414 -83280-5 10183-2 0 1098
2 21990 26.1787 297.0242 0240455 330.9706 27.7798 15.97799513130806
Note: I have this decaying northbound over the Pacific, well to the
south of Hawaii, near the end of this SatEvo-predicted orbit:
Intl 101 Cen r 8.6 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 22 238 x 108 km
1 21990U 92032B 02150.45217574 1.34434545 55194+1 10606-2 0 91061
2 21990 26.1743 294.5924 0099113 334.5723 24.9435 16.37221036130856
Obviously, SpaceCom and SatEvo don't agree.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26641 = 00- 81 D = Astra 2D Ariane 5 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 30 01:38 May 31 18:57 +-1d 1.8 S 122.0 E
SatEvo May 30 18:30 May 31 23:45 +-12h
Latest elset:
Astra 2D Ariane 5 r 1309 x 112 km
1 26641U 00081D 02150.42766204 .27232956 -25750-4 86131-3 0 8471
2 26641 2.0955 62.6335 0844093 181.4186 136.0495 14.54752603 21136
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26940 = 01- 45 E = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 30 11:10 May 30 23:26 +-9h 34.2 N 93.2 E
SatEvo May 30 18:40 May 30 23:28 +-3h 45.2 N 61.0 E
Latest elsets:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 3098 x 93 km
1 26940U 01045E 02150.36357495 .99999999 28672-4 32251-2 0 2451
2 26940 46.8605 194.1777 1883855 79.0883 301.4336 12.19406324 7189
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 2405 x 105 km
1 26940U 01045E 02150.62321542 .99999999 32715-4 54821-2 0 2465
2 26940 46.8695 193.1747 1506604 80.6764 38.6296 13.01923635 7213
SatEvo prediction:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 1706 x 86 km
1 26940U 01045E 02150.82312626 2.83520009 24971+1 33270-2 0 92451
2 26940 46.7841 192.4277 1113227 80.8031 291.5986 13.99301126 7240
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 1411 x 85 km
1 26940U 01045E 02150.89307456 3.49769206 44092+1 33491-2 0 92451
2 26940 46.7683 192.1090 0930743 81.1161 289.2944 14.43185952 7257
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 1064 x 83 km
1 26940U 01045E 02150.96061218 4.76636889 91570+1 34756-2 0 92451
2 26940 46.7545 191.7783 0705919 81.4410 286.4892 14.97855412 7269
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 584 x 80 km
1 26940U 01045E 02151.02505914 9.38053347 50000+2 39557-2 0 92458
2 26940 46.7269 191.4316 0375598 81.7821 282.4599 15.79643851 7270
Note: The perigee height remains inconsistent between published elsets.
I suspect decay is most likely near perigee on the penultimate of
these SatEvo-predicted revs. This puts it over Kazakhstan following a
pass across Europe from Gibraltar at 23:16 UTC to Rome at 23:20 and
Bucharest at 23:22. Predictions from the elsets are uncertain by
several minutes.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
http://www2.satellite.eu.org/sat/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu May 30 2002 - 14:59:27 EDT