Decay watch: 2002 May 30

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu May 30 2002 - 14:58:19 EDT

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    Taken from the latest update to my Decay Watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20586 = 90- 39 D = Molniya 1-77 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 27 07:43     May 31 02:44 +-2d        56.7 S    20.4 W
    SatEvo     May 30 18:20     May 31 19:14 +-9h        51.2 S     7.2 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  2205 x 84 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02150.67143397  .72025289  68873-5  87763-3 0   144
    2 20586  63.2277 315.0985 1409741 246.1278 259.0069 13.30757019 88279
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  993 x 77 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02151.56510334 1.65339901  11902+1  86622-3 0 90131
    2 20586  63.1448 312.5183 0662721 245.7994 107.1344 15.10411536 88403
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  688 x 75 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02151.69583849 2.45333243  37178+1  93790-3 0 90135
    2 20586  63.1262 312.0545 0453325 245.8101 109.3858 15.62138055 88428
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  477 x 74 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02151.75942501 3.70678871  11418+2  10385-2 0 90132
    2 20586  63.1154 311.8140 0303109 245.8160 110.9860 15.99716628 88435
    
    Note: I estimate that decay is most likely near perigee on the
    penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted revs. This has it approaching
    southern apex over the far southern Atlantic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21990 = 92- 32 B = Intelsat 101 Atlas Centaur rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 30 16:01     May 30 09:14 +-7m        10.2 S   113.1 W
    SatEvo     May 29 20:05     May 30 12:14 +-2h         8.2 S   154.21 W
    
    Final elset:
    Intl 101 Cen r   8.6  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   22       441 x 120 km
    1 21990U 92032B   02150.14278471  .42027414 -83280-5  10183-2 0  1098
    2 21990  26.1787 297.0242 0240455 330.9706  27.7798 15.97799513130806
    
    Note: I have this decaying northbound over the Pacific, well to the
    south of Hawaii, near the end of this SatEvo-predicted orbit:
    Intl 101 Cen r   8.6  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   22       238 x 108 km
    1 21990U 92032B   02150.45217574 1.34434545  55194+1  10606-2 0 91061
    2 21990  26.1743 294.5924 0099113 334.5723  24.9435 16.37221036130856
    Obviously, SpaceCom and SatEvo don't agree.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26641 = 00- 81 D = Astra 2D Ariane 5 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 30 01:38     May 31 18:57 +-1d         1.8 S   122.0 E
    SatEvo     May 30 18:30     May 31 23:45 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Astra 2D Ariane 5 r                              1309 x 112 km
    1 26641U 00081D   02150.42766204  .27232956 -25750-4  86131-3 0  8471
    2 26641   2.0955  62.6335 0844093 181.4186 136.0495 14.54752603 21136
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26940 = 01- 45 E = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 30 11:10     May 30 23:26 +-9h        34.2 N    93.2 E
    SatEvo     May 30 18:40     May 30 23:28 +-3h        45.2 N    61.0 E
    
    Latest elsets:
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             3098 x 93 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02150.36357495  .99999999  28672-4  32251-2 0  2451
    2 26940  46.8605 194.1777 1883855  79.0883 301.4336 12.19406324  7189
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             2405 x 105 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02150.62321542  .99999999  32715-4  54821-2 0  2465
    2 26940  46.8695 193.1747 1506604  80.6764  38.6296 13.01923635  7213
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             1706 x 86 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02150.82312626 2.83520009  24971+1  33270-2 0 92451
    2 26940  46.7841 192.4277 1113227  80.8031 291.5986 13.99301126  7240
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             1411 x 85 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02150.89307456 3.49769206  44092+1  33491-2 0 92451
    2 26940  46.7683 192.1090 0930743  81.1161 289.2944 14.43185952  7257
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             1064 x 83 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02150.96061218 4.76636889  91570+1  34756-2 0 92451
    2 26940  46.7545 191.7783 0705919  81.4410 286.4892 14.97855412  7269
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             584 x 80 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02151.02505914 9.38053347  50000+2  39557-2 0 92458
    2 26940  46.7269 191.4316 0375598  81.7821 282.4599 15.79643851  7270
    
    Note: The perigee height remains inconsistent between published elsets.
    I suspect decay is most likely near perigee on the penultimate of
    these SatEvo-predicted revs. This puts it over Kazakhstan following a
    pass across Europe from Gibraltar at 23:16 UTC to Rome at 23:20 and
    Bucharest at 23:22. Predictions from the elsets are uncertain by
    several minutes.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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