Taken from the latest update to my Decay Watch page: _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #20586 = 90- 39 D = Molniya 1-77 r2 Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom May 27 07:43 May 31 02:44 +-2d 56.7 S 20.4 W SatEvo May 30 18:20 May 31 19:14 +-9h 51.2 S 7.2 W Latest elset: Molniya 1-77 r2 2205 x 84 km 1 20586U 90039D 02150.67143397 .72025289 68873-5 87763-3 0 144 2 20586 63.2277 315.0985 1409741 246.1278 259.0069 13.30757019 88279 SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page. (..ends) Molniya 1-77 r2 993 x 77 km 1 20586U 90039D 02151.56510334 1.65339901 11902+1 86622-3 0 90131 2 20586 63.1448 312.5183 0662721 245.7994 107.1344 15.10411536 88403 Molniya 1-77 r2 688 x 75 km 1 20586U 90039D 02151.69583849 2.45333243 37178+1 93790-3 0 90135 2 20586 63.1262 312.0545 0453325 245.8101 109.3858 15.62138055 88428 Molniya 1-77 r2 477 x 74 km 1 20586U 90039D 02151.75942501 3.70678871 11418+2 10385-2 0 90132 2 20586 63.1154 311.8140 0303109 245.8160 110.9860 15.99716628 88435 Note: I estimate that decay is most likely near perigee on the penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted revs. This has it approaching southern apex over the far southern Atlantic. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #21990 = 92- 32 B = Intelsat 101 Atlas Centaur rocket Final decay analyses: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom May 30 16:01 May 30 09:14 +-7m 10.2 S 113.1 W SatEvo May 29 20:05 May 30 12:14 +-2h 8.2 S 154.21 W Final elset: Intl 101 Cen r 8.6 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 22 441 x 120 km 1 21990U 92032B 02150.14278471 .42027414 -83280-5 10183-2 0 1098 2 21990 26.1787 297.0242 0240455 330.9706 27.7798 15.97799513130806 Note: I have this decaying northbound over the Pacific, well to the south of Hawaii, near the end of this SatEvo-predicted orbit: Intl 101 Cen r 8.6 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 22 238 x 108 km 1 21990U 92032B 02150.45217574 1.34434545 55194+1 10606-2 0 91061 2 21990 26.1743 294.5924 0099113 334.5723 24.9435 16.37221036130856 Obviously, SpaceCom and SatEvo don't agree. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #26641 = 00- 81 D = Astra 2D Ariane 5 r Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom May 30 01:38 May 31 18:57 +-1d 1.8 S 122.0 E SatEvo May 30 18:30 May 31 23:45 +-12h Latest elset: Astra 2D Ariane 5 r 1309 x 112 km 1 26641U 00081D 02150.42766204 .27232956 -25750-4 86131-3 0 8471 2 26641 2.0955 62.6335 0844093 181.4186 136.0495 14.54752603 21136 SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #26940 = 01- 45 E = Raduga 1-6 aux motor Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom May 30 11:10 May 30 23:26 +-9h 34.2 N 93.2 E SatEvo May 30 18:40 May 30 23:28 +-3h 45.2 N 61.0 E Latest elsets: Raduga 1-6 aux motor 3098 x 93 km 1 26940U 01045E 02150.36357495 .99999999 28672-4 32251-2 0 2451 2 26940 46.8605 194.1777 1883855 79.0883 301.4336 12.19406324 7189 Raduga 1-6 aux motor 2405 x 105 km 1 26940U 01045E 02150.62321542 .99999999 32715-4 54821-2 0 2465 2 26940 46.8695 193.1747 1506604 80.6764 38.6296 13.01923635 7213 SatEvo prediction: Raduga 1-6 aux motor 1706 x 86 km 1 26940U 01045E 02150.82312626 2.83520009 24971+1 33270-2 0 92451 2 26940 46.7841 192.4277 1113227 80.8031 291.5986 13.99301126 7240 Raduga 1-6 aux motor 1411 x 85 km 1 26940U 01045E 02150.89307456 3.49769206 44092+1 33491-2 0 92451 2 26940 46.7683 192.1090 0930743 81.1161 289.2944 14.43185952 7257 Raduga 1-6 aux motor 1064 x 83 km 1 26940U 01045E 02150.96061218 4.76636889 91570+1 34756-2 0 92451 2 26940 46.7545 191.7783 0705919 81.4410 286.4892 14.97855412 7269 Raduga 1-6 aux motor 584 x 80 km 1 26940U 01045E 02151.02505914 9.38053347 50000+2 39557-2 0 92458 2 26940 46.7269 191.4316 0375598 81.7821 282.4599 15.79643851 7270 Note: The perigee height remains inconsistent between published elsets. I suspect decay is most likely near perigee on the penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted revs. This puts it over Kazakhstan following a pass across Europe from Gibraltar at 23:16 UTC to Rome at 23:20 and Bucharest at 23:22. Predictions from the elsets are uncertain by several minutes. _____________________________________________________________________ Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum) Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/sat/seesat/seesatindex.html
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