The following is a summary of the latest update to my Decay watch page,
including one new decayer since I last posted to SeeSat. For some
reason, all the latest published elsets for these objects show orbits
with perigee heights that are much too high. Check my page for predicted
elsets, for what they are worth.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #20586 = 90- 39 D = Molniya 1-77 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 28 13:56 May 31 12:26 +-2d 53.8 S 185.8 E
SatEvo May 29 20:00 May 31 16:05 +-18h
Latest elsets:
Molniya 1-77 r2 3549 x 89 km
1 20586U 90039D 02149.35146220 .46907044 52125-5 10274-2 0 71
2 20586 63.2394 318.1921 2110365 245.3902 94.6220 11.69873875 88114
Molniya 1-77 r2 3090 x 591 km
1 20586U 90039D 02149.35043016 .80111522 00000-0 58532+2 0 85
2 20586 63.5677 317.7152 1520270 242.4111 97.8433 11.65206149 88101
Molniya 1-77 r2 2857 x 504 km
1 20586U 90039D 02149.60431663 .71416728 00000-0 25669+2 0 94
2 20586 63.6131 317.5481 1459606 242.0777 98.3715 12.00112327 88134
Molniya 1-77 r2 2918 x 320 km
1 20586U 90039D 02149.68744750 .81096501 00000-0 40587+1 0 118
2 20586 63.4446 316.9116 1624440 241.2204 101.8501 12.14011014 88145
Note: The latest three elsets, above, show a much-too-high perigee
and are ignored in my latest prediction. the predicted elsets remain
very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21990 = 92- 32 B = Intelsat 101 Atlas Centaur rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 28 09:01 May 30 09:31 +-1d 8.9 N 75.6 W
SatEvo May 29 20:05 May 30 13:49 +-9h 0.0 161.6 W
Latest elsets:
Intl 101 Cen r 8.6 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 22 682 x 128 km
1 21990U 92032B 02149.50910848 .18662922 00000-0 91346-3 0 991
2 21990 26.1918 301.9707 0408670 319.8931 36.7262 15.54101803130701
Intl 101 Cen r 8.6 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 22 518 x 240 km
1 21990U 92032B 02149.63698065 .25472853 00000-0 84007-1 0 1006
2 21990 26.1885 301.2363 0206144 327.9654 28.9320 15.63040340130727
Note: Once again, the perigee on the latest elset is too high and
that elset is ignored in my prediction. Indeed, the penultimate elset
is suspect, with the highest perigee height formore than 3 days.
I put the decay near a northbound equator crossing over the Pacific,
but this prediction and the predicted elsets are very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26641 = 00- 81 D = Astra 2D Ariane 5 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 29 02:13 May 31 17:29 +-2d 1.9 S 165.8 W
SatEvo May 29 20:20 Jun 1 01:10 +-20h
Latest elsets:
Astra 2D Ariane 5 r 1674 x 113 km
1 26641U 00081D 02149.31768725 .21266659 -91446-4 81705-3 0 8419
2 26641 2.0966 70.2940 1073407 166.0570 196.6419 14.00156387 20983
Astra 2D Ariane 5 r 1582 x 185 km
1 26641U 00081D 02149.38886157 .36297888 00000-0 67615-1 0 8424
2 26641 2.1078 69.9478 0961750 161.0146 202.8179 14.03020371 20988
Note: Yet again, the latest elset has a too-high perigee and is
ignored.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26940 = 01- 45 E = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 29 01:54 May 30 21:03 +-1d 39.4 N 118.7 E
SatEvo May 29 20:25 May 30 21:09 +-13h
Latest elsets:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 5854 x 101 km
1 26940U 01045E 02149.16359424 .73721668 18051-4 40954-2 0 2290
2 26940 46.8899 197.4532 3074610 75.2655 318.4071 9.59395767 7066
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 5167 x 235 km
1 26940U 01045E 02149.26697557 .27174858 00000-0 45164+0 0 2314
2 26940 46.9117 197.2734 2716299 76.5030 313.3913 10.03596686 7072
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 4964 x 173 km
1 26940U 01045E 02149.56229892 .32636123 00000-0 91690-1 0 2344
2 26940 46.9523 196.7518 2676916 76.0703 314.4087 10.25967886 7106
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 4649 x 376 km
1 26940U 01045E 02149.56234916 .82733388 00000-0 12129+2 0 2376
2 26940 47.1976 196.6983 2403203 73.7044 321.0523 10.35689048 7106
Note: Again, the latest three elsets have perigee heights that are
far too high and are ignored in my analysis. Need I add that the
prediction is very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed May 29 2002 - 16:39:36 EDT