Decay watch: 2002 May 29

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed May 29 2002 - 16:38:05 EDT

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    The following is a summary of the latest update to my Decay watch page, 
    including one new decayer since I last posted to SeeSat. For some 
    reason, all the latest published elsets for these objects show orbits 
    with perigee heights that are much too high. Check my page for predicted 
    elsets, for what they are worth.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20586 = 90- 39 D = Molniya 1-77 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 28 13:56     May 31 12:26 +-2d        53.8 S   185.8 E
    SatEvo     May 29 20:00     May 31 16:05 +-18h
    
    Latest elsets:
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  3549 x 89 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02149.35146220  .46907044  52125-5  10274-2 0    71
    2 20586  63.2394 318.1921 2110365 245.3902  94.6220 11.69873875 88114
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  3090 x 591 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02149.35043016  .80111522  00000-0  58532+2 0    85
    2 20586  63.5677 317.7152 1520270 242.4111  97.8433 11.65206149 88101
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  2857 x 504 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02149.60431663  .71416728  00000-0  25669+2 0    94
    2 20586  63.6131 317.5481 1459606 242.0777  98.3715 12.00112327 88134
    Molniya 1-77 r2                                  2918 x 320 km
    1 20586U 90039D   02149.68744750  .81096501  00000-0  40587+1 0   118
    2 20586  63.4446 316.9116 1624440 241.2204 101.8501 12.14011014 88145
    
    Note: The latest three elsets, above, show a much-too-high perigee
    and are ignored in my latest prediction. the predicted elsets remain
    very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21990 = 92- 32 B = Intelsat 101 Atlas Centaur rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 28 09:01     May 30 09:31 +-1d         8.9 N    75.6 W
    SatEvo     May 29 20:05     May 30 13:49 +-9h         0.0     161.6 W
    
    Latest elsets:
    Intl 101 Cen r   8.6  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   22       682 x 128 km
    1 21990U 92032B   02149.50910848  .18662922  00000-0  91346-3 0   991
    2 21990  26.1918 301.9707 0408670 319.8931  36.7262 15.54101803130701
    Intl 101 Cen r   8.6  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   22       518 x 240 km
    1 21990U 92032B   02149.63698065  .25472853  00000-0  84007-1 0  1006
    2 21990  26.1885 301.2363 0206144 327.9654  28.9320 15.63040340130727
    
    Note: Once again, the perigee on the latest elset is too high and
    that elset is ignored in my prediction. Indeed, the penultimate elset
    is suspect, with the highest perigee height formore than 3 days.
    I put the decay near a northbound equator crossing over the Pacific,
    but this prediction and the predicted elsets are very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26641 = 00- 81 D = Astra 2D Ariane 5 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 29 02:13     May 31 17:29 +-2d         1.9 S   165.8 W
    SatEvo     May 29 20:20     Jun  1 01:10 +-20h
    
    Latest elsets:
    Astra 2D Ariane 5 r                              1674 x 113 km
    1 26641U 00081D   02149.31768725  .21266659 -91446-4  81705-3 0  8419
    2 26641   2.0966  70.2940 1073407 166.0570 196.6419 14.00156387 20983
    Astra 2D Ariane 5 r                              1582 x 185 km
    1 26641U 00081D   02149.38886157  .36297888  00000-0  67615-1 0  8424
    2 26641   2.1078  69.9478 0961750 161.0146 202.8179 14.03020371 20988
    
    Note: Yet again, the latest elset has a too-high perigee and is
    ignored.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26940 = 01- 45 E = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 29 01:54     May 30 21:03 +-1d        39.4 N   118.7 E
    SatEvo     May 29 20:25     May 30 21:09 +-13h
    
    Latest elsets:
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             5854 x 101 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02149.16359424  .73721668  18051-4  40954-2 0  2290
    2 26940  46.8899 197.4532 3074610  75.2655 318.4071  9.59395767  7066
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             5167 x 235 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02149.26697557  .27174858  00000-0  45164+0 0  2314
    2 26940  46.9117 197.2734 2716299  76.5030 313.3913 10.03596686  7072
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             4964 x 173 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02149.56229892  .32636123  00000-0  91690-1 0  2344
    2 26940  46.9523 196.7518 2676916  76.0703 314.4087 10.25967886  7106
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             4649 x 376 km
    1 26940U 01045E   02149.56234916  .82733388  00000-0  12129+2 0  2376
    2 26940  47.1976 196.6983 2403203  73.7044 321.0523 10.35689048  7106
    
    Note: Again, the latest three elsets have perigee heights that are
    far too high and are ignored in my analysis. Need I add that the
    prediction is very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed May 29 2002 - 16:39:36 EDT