Decay watch: 2002 May 21

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue May 21 2002 - 14:53:21 EDT

  • Next message: Baldridge, Rick: "Chinese sats observed by accident"

    My Decay Watch page enjoyed several updates while SeeSat was AWOL. A 
    summary of the latest follows.
    
    Also note that my latest SatEvo Decay List (#127) was issued on the 
    17th, see:
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/current.htm
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21990 = 92- 32 B = Intelsat 101 Atlas Centaur rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 21 11:10     May 28 11:21 +-4d        11.8 S    98.1 E
    SatEvo     May 21 18:35     May 29 14:28 +-3d
    
    Latest elset:
    Intl 101 Cen r   8.6  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   22       1757 x 131 km
    1 21990U 92032B   02141.01070100  .07574483 -76824-5  82231-3 0   614
    2 21990  26.1881 355.3925 1110044 232.2782 117.2383 13.85703799129467
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near the equator in the
    evening . Eclipse exit occurs before dawn as this heads northwards
    near 17 deg S.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24780 = 97- 18 B = Celestis
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 20 20:05     May 20 08:58 +-1m        24.7 S    74.2 W
    SatEvo     May 20 19:00     May 20 09:35 +-80m       22.3 N   104.1 E
    
    Final elset:
    Celestis         1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.8       169 x 163 km
    1 24780U 97018B   02140.14848978  .15486369 -41423-4  10900-2 0   963
    2 24780 150.9437 170.8721 0004795 298.1029  62.0265 16.39819236281329
    
    Note: I have this decaying over southern China a little beyond
    the end of the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Celestis         1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.8       136 x 133 km
    1 24780U 97018B   02140.33050161  .84317711  98926+1  71279-3 0 90964
    2 24780 150.9417 172.3312 0002418 300.4568  59.5192 16.51833144281356
    This is about six hours after the final elset, so the uncertainty
    (except for SpaceCom, apparently) remains high.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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