Decay watch: 2002 May 8 (Proton rocket)

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed May 08 2002 - 17:54:06 EDT


My update on the DirecTV Proton decay:

_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27427 = 02- 23 B = DirecTV Proton rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SpaceCom   May  8 15:51     May  9 04:09 +-8h        32.7 N   136.4 W
SatEvo     May  8 21:40     May  9 05:54 +-5h        37.1 N    50.9 W

Latest elset:
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               190 x 141 km
1 27427U 02023B   02128.61735259  .06705772  12440-4  20845-3 0   116
2 27427  51.6042 124.5713 0037317 277.3707  82.3122 16.39984715   156

SatEvo prediction:
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               169 x 132 km
1 27427U 02023B   02128.92153695  .12589263  10940+0  18596-3 0 90117
2 27427  51.6026 122.8443 0028183 278.6620  81.0188 16.45664584   208
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               163 x 130 km
1 27427U 02023B   02128.98223412  .14994245  15843+0  17992-3 0 90116
2 27427  51.6022 122.4978 0025588 278.9211  80.7892 16.47329507   212
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               156 x 126 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.04286469  .18620822  24752+0  17428-3 0 90119
2 27427  51.6016 122.1508 0022519 279.1806  80.5646 16.49350848   225
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               147 x 122 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.10341286  .24128338  33110+0  16547-3 0 90116
2 27427  51.6009 121.8031 0018767 279.4406  80.3471 16.51921662   239
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               135 x 116 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.16385575  .32792108  92104+0  15191-3 0 90114
2 27427  51.6001 121.4545 0014182 279.7013  80.1384 16.55227124   249
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               114 x 105 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.22414872 1.06217337  17285+2  24283-3 0 90113
2 27427  51.5988 121.1048 0006786 279.9629  79.9604 16.61336428   250

Note: There are observing opportunities as this heads towards eclipse
entry near 46 deg N in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs while
southbound a few deg N of the equator. Further elsets have been slow
to appear since my previous update and the prediction remains uncertain
by several orbits. My new prediction shows an earlier decay, though the
time will depend on by how much (and how quickly) the drag coefficient
changes in line with the atmospheric flow regime. My latest decay point
lies over the western Atlantic following a pass across southern Canada
from Vancouver at 05:41 UTC to Halifax, Nova Scotia, at 05:51.
SpaceCom's latest prediction puts the decay to the W of San Francisco
on the previous orbit.
_____________________________________________________________________


Alan
-- 
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
          *

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