Several additions to my updated Decay Watch page, including my first
prediction for the new bright/observable Protion rocket. A summary
follows.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #2129 = 66- 26 B = P-35-15 Thor Altair rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 7 14:10 May 10 12:28 +-2d 81.5 S 66.1 W
SatEvo May 8 15:00 May 10 17:19 +-15h
Latest elset:
P-35-15 r 243 x 215 km
1 02129U 66026B 02128.50393349 .03169614 28581-5 21080-2 0 8051
2 02129 98.1216 235.9025 0021095 272.2004 87.6839 16.16438856924254
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #5281 = 71- 52 A = Cosmos 426
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 8 08:27 May 11 06:37 +-2d 50.6 S 105.0 W
SatEvo May 8 15:30 May 11 11:11 +-21h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 426 1.8 1.5 0.0 7.2 d 3.8 244 x 186 km
1 05281U 71052A 02128.52391392 .02455518 19536-5 90880-3 0 6442
2 05281 73.8931 249.6953 0043816 254.6936 104.9528 16.21710652575247
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: This has eclipse entry while southbound near 71 deg S in
the evening. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near 48 deg N at
~03h local time.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23661 = 95- 45 F = Cosmos 2319 aux motor
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 8 03:46 May 8 02:29 +-1m 21.3 N 63.6 E
SatEvo May 8 14:50 May 8 02:10 +-5h 46.7 N 2.0 W
Final elset:
C 2319 aux motor 472 x 117 km
1 23661U 95045F 02127.58029226 .28598452 11158-4 60767-3 0 6378
2 23661 46.5234 170.4258 0266017 72.7773 290.1821 15.92871677111601
Note: Though I have heard of no observations to confirm this, my
estimate is that this decayed close to its northern apex on an
eastbound track near Nantes, France. The track would have taken it
across Europe to the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria at 02:15 UTC. With
no new elsets over the final 12 hours of its life, though, the
uncertainty remains high. My SatEvo-predicted final elsets are:
C 2319 aux motor 266 x 108 km
1 23661U 95045F 02128.01451453 .82957204 17790+1 74793-3 0 96379
2 23661 46.5129 167.8189 0119750 75.3677 285.9570 16.32126845111675
C 2319 aux motor 199 x 104 km
1 23661U 95045F 02128.07540861 1.58948973 10125+2 88142-3 0 96373
2 23661 46.5097 167.4381 0072767 75.7462 285.0609 16.45496141111689
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27427 = 02- 23 B = DirecTV Proton rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 8 08:39 May 9 01:11 +-10h 23.7 N 101.3 W
SatEvo May 8 15:40 May 9 08:55 +-6h 17.0 N 74.4 W
Latest elset:
DirecTV 5 Proton r 194 x 143 km
1 27427U 02023B 02128.55640083 .06962793 12421-4 24411-3 0 108
2 27427 51.6045 124.9158 0038818 277.4573 82.2045 16.39095908 144
SatEvo prediction:
DirecTV 5 Proton r 180 x 136 km
1 27427U 02023B 02128.79999181 .08871583 46668-1 18358-3 0 90107
2 27427 51.6035 123.5362 0033764 278.4888 81.1285 16.42804081 182
DirecTV 5 Proton r 161 x 127 km
1 27427U 02023B 02129.04294712 .14143022 10415+0 14530-3 0 90108
2 27427 51.6020 122.1514 0026444 279.5243 80.1768 16.48229459 220
DirecTV 5 Proton r 155 x 124 km
1 27427U 02023B 02129.10354632 .16149492 11003+0 13281-3 0 90108
2 27427 51.6015 121.8042 0023950 279.7840 79.9454 16.50064053 239
DirecTV 5 Proton r 148 x 120 km
1 27427U 02023B 02129.16407434 .17335714 -10612-1 11180-3 0 90102
2 27427 51.6009 121.4563 0021214 280.0441 79.7164 16.52114055 246
DirecTV 5 Proton r 140 x 116 km
1 27427U 02023B 02129.22452429 .20950344 24780+0 10363-3 0 90109
2 27427 51.6003 121.1079 0018170 280.3047 79.4903 16.54404974 254
DirecTV 5 Proton r 130 x 111 km
1 27427U 02023B 02129.28488222 .27205368 45625+0 97272-4 0 90107
2 27427 51.5996 120.7587 0014417 280.5658 79.2716 16.57272532 260
DirecTV 5 Proton r 114 x 103 km
1 27427U 02023B 02129.34511818 .66514102 63971+1 14341-3 0 90104
2 27427 51.5986 120.4086 0008677 280.8277 79.0745 16.61845539 270
Note: There are observing opportunities as this heads towards eclipse
entry near 46 deg N in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs while
southbound a few deg N of the equator. I plan to update this prediction
again in a few hours.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27428 = 02- 23 C = DirecTV Proton casing
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 8 06:47 May 8 05:48 +-7m 35.0 S 140.0 E
SatEvo May 8 15:10 May 8 05:42 +-25m 49.5 S 64.8 E
Final elset:
DirecTV 5 Proton casing 148 x 132 km
1 27428U 02023C 02128.20501213 .48788040 12669-4 51365-3 0 66
2 27428 51.5875 126.8964 0012478 269.5103 181.0554 16.49713411 78
Note: The final elset is for the start of its final rev. i put the
decay over the southern Indian Ocean while SpaceCom has it further on
over Adelaide, Australia.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon May 20 2002 - 18:25:35 EDT