Decay watch: 2002 May 8

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed May 08 2002 - 12:04:37 EDT


Several additions to my updated Decay Watch page, including my first 
prediction for the new bright/observable Protion rocket. A summary 
follows.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #2129 = 66- 26 B = P-35-15 Thor Altair rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SpaceCom   May  7 14:10     May 10 12:28 +-2d        81.5 S    66.1 W
SatEvo     May  8 15:00     May 10 17:19 +-15h

Latest elset:
P-35-15 r                                        243 x 215 km
1 02129U 66026B   02128.50393349  .03169614  28581-5  21080-2 0  8051
2 02129  98.1216 235.9025 0021095 272.2004  87.6839 16.16438856924254

SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #5281 = 71- 52 A = Cosmos 426

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SpaceCom   May  8 08:27     May 11 06:37 +-2d        50.6 S   105.0 W
SatEvo     May  8 15:30     May 11 11:11 +-21h

Latest elset:
Cosmos 426       1.8  1.5  0.0  7.2 d  3.8       244 x 186 km
1 05281U 71052A   02128.52391392  .02455518  19536-5  90880-3 0  6442
2 05281  73.8931 249.6953 0043816 254.6936 104.9528 16.21710652575247

SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.

Note: This has eclipse entry while southbound near 71 deg S in
the evening. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near 48 deg N at
~03h local time.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23661 = 95- 45 F = Cosmos 2319 aux motor

Final decay analyses:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SpaceCom   May  8 03:46     May  8 02:29 +-1m        21.3 N    63.6 E
SatEvo     May  8 14:50     May  8 02:10 +-5h        46.7 N     2.0 W

Final elset:
C 2319 aux motor                                 472 x 117 km
1 23661U 95045F   02127.58029226  .28598452  11158-4  60767-3 0  6378
2 23661  46.5234 170.4258 0266017  72.7773 290.1821 15.92871677111601

Note: Though I have heard of no observations to confirm this, my
estimate is that this decayed close to its northern apex on an
eastbound track near Nantes, France. The track would have taken it
across Europe to the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria at 02:15 UTC. With
no new elsets over the final 12 hours of its life, though, the
uncertainty remains high. My SatEvo-predicted final elsets are:
C 2319 aux motor                                 266 x 108 km
1 23661U 95045F   02128.01451453  .82957204  17790+1  74793-3 0 96379
2 23661  46.5129 167.8189 0119750  75.3677 285.9570 16.32126845111675
C 2319 aux motor                                 199 x 104 km
1 23661U 95045F   02128.07540861 1.58948973  10125+2  88142-3 0 96373
2 23661  46.5097 167.4381 0072767  75.7462 285.0609 16.45496141111689
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27427 = 02- 23 B = DirecTV Proton rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SpaceCom   May  8 08:39     May  9 01:11 +-10h       23.7 N   101.3 W
SatEvo     May  8 15:40     May  9 08:55 +-6h        17.0 N    74.4 W

Latest elset:
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               194 x 143 km
1 27427U 02023B   02128.55640083  .06962793  12421-4  24411-3 0   108
2 27427  51.6045 124.9158 0038818 277.4573  82.2045 16.39095908   144

SatEvo prediction:
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               180 x 136 km
1 27427U 02023B   02128.79999181  .08871583  46668-1  18358-3 0 90107
2 27427  51.6035 123.5362 0033764 278.4888  81.1285 16.42804081   182
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               161 x 127 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.04294712  .14143022  10415+0  14530-3 0 90108
2 27427  51.6020 122.1514 0026444 279.5243  80.1768 16.48229459   220
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               155 x 124 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.10354632  .16149492  11003+0  13281-3 0 90108
2 27427  51.6015 121.8042 0023950 279.7840  79.9454 16.50064053   239
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               148 x 120 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.16407434  .17335714 -10612-1  11180-3 0 90102
2 27427  51.6009 121.4563 0021214 280.0441  79.7164 16.52114055   246
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               140 x 116 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.22452429  .20950344  24780+0  10363-3 0 90109
2 27427  51.6003 121.1079 0018170 280.3047  79.4903 16.54404974   254
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               130 x 111 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.28488222  .27205368  45625+0  97272-4 0 90107
2 27427  51.5996 120.7587 0014417 280.5658  79.2716 16.57272532   260
DirecTV 5 Proton r                               114 x 103 km
1 27427U 02023B   02129.34511818  .66514102  63971+1  14341-3 0 90104
2 27427  51.5986 120.4086 0008677 280.8277  79.0745 16.61845539   270

Note: There are observing opportunities as this heads towards eclipse
entry near 46 deg N in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs while
southbound a few deg N of the equator. I plan to update this prediction
again in a few hours.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27428 = 02- 23 C = DirecTV Proton casing

Final decay analyses:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SpaceCom   May  8 06:47     May  8 05:48 +-7m        35.0 S   140.0 E
SatEvo     May  8 15:10     May  8 05:42 +-25m       49.5 S    64.8 E

Final elset:
DirecTV 5 Proton casing                          148 x 132 km
1 27428U 02023C   02128.20501213  .48788040  12669-4  51365-3 0    66
2 27428  51.5875 126.8964 0012478 269.5103 181.0554 16.49713411    78

Note: The final elset is for the start of its final rev. i put the
decay over the southern Indian Ocean while SpaceCom has it further on
over Adelaide, Australia.
_____________________________________________________________________


Alan
-- 
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
          *

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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon May 20 2002 - 18:25:35 EDT