Again, please check my Decay Watch page for more details, including
predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11252 = 79- 5 B = Meteor 1-29 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 22 14:44 May 24 11:46 +-1d 43.8 N 52.5 W
SatEvo May 22 16:10 May 24 05:20 +-9h
Latest elset:
Meteor 1-29 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.1 192 x 181 km
1 11252U 79005B 01142.59890034 .02287382 24004-5 42134-3 0 8148
2 11252 97.2182 176.2904 0008475 229.7264 276.7267 16.32264128228292
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
Note: the latest elset shows this running only 0.003 sec late against
yesterday's SatEvo prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #14313 = 83- 90 A = Molniya 3-21
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 22 02:39 May 22 02:28 +-7m 39.9 S 17.4 E
SatEvo May 22 16:20 May 22 01:19 -10+150m 49.8 S 150.7 E
Final elsets:
Molniya 3-21 1562 x 77 km
1 14313U 83090A 01141.75279272 .99999999 22358-4 14010-2 0 5620
2 14313 62.1121 89.7399 1031480 269.7784 200.0891 14.21749001 79928
Molniya 3-21 938 x 77 km
1 14313U 83090A 01141.94811362 .19712253 70348-5 10000-3 0 5664
2 14313 62.1082 89.0689 0625323 269.2564 152.8203 15.19474445 79953
Molniya 3-21 656 x 76 km
1 14313U 83090A 01142.01820600 .35247183 78832-5 13629-3 0 5678
2 14313 62.0916 88.7824 0429845 269.8120 181.2286 15.67647205 79967
Note: The final three published elsets (above) show this running
7 sec early, 49 sec late and 145 sec late against the prediction
I posted yesterday. It is possible that this suffered a partial
breakup during this period, leading to a reduction in drag and
a prolonged lifetime. Judging from the elset numbers, three elsets
were generated but are not (yet) available via OIG. An evolution
through the above three elsets leads a decay near perigee on the
last one, to the south of Australia. It is possible, though, that
it survived for one more rev as SpaceCom suggests.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26502 = 00- 49 F = Raduga-1 5 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 22 04:30 May 23 03:51 +-14h 33.0 S 66.7 E
SatEvo May 22 16:25 May 23 03:35 +-7h 9.5 N 22.9 E
Latest elset:
Raduga-1 5 aux motor 1621 x 101 km
1 26502U 00049F 01142.52847462 .90637643 10895-4 20113-2 0 3824
2 26502 46.5615 149.6460 1050095 135.3611 309.9128 14.09583314 8710
SatEvo prediction:
Raduga-1 5 aux motor 1264 x 99 km
1 26502U 00049F 01142.79178210 1.20931190 59731+0 21457-2 0 93827
2 26502 46.5418 148.4162 0824962 136.5813 230.2168 14.63696662 8750
Raduga-1 5 aux motor 746 x 94 km
1 26502U 00049F 01143.05731431 2.30990200 34711+1 24505-2 0 93825
2 26502 46.5144 147.0482 0478921 137.9401 225.8362 15.48923940 8790
Raduga-1 5 aux motor 545 x 92 km
1 26502U 00049F 01143.12092936 3.42597557 96589+1 27378-2 0 93827
2 26502 46.5058 146.6892 0338059 138.2969 224.3295 15.84118698 8801
Note: The latest elset shows it running 9 min early against
yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I show it decaying southbound over
central Africa on the last of these SatEvo-predicted revs.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26774 = 01- 21 B = Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 22 14:47 May 22 16:17 +-1h 13.4 S 75.7 W
SatEvo May 22 16:35 May 22 15:25 +-18h 0.0 105.6 E
Latest elset:
Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r 142 x 139 km
1 26774U 01021B 01142.58206515 .23192005 12698-4 28894-3 0 144
2 26774 51.6220 217.5269 0002223 335.7708 24.3424 16.49604369 274
Note: The next-to-latest elset shows this running 33 sec late against
yesterday's preliminary prediction. I show it decaying near the
northbound equator crossing at the end of the above orbit, placing it
over Indonesia
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue May 22 2001 - 09:55:39 PDT