Decay watch: 2001 May 22

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue May 22 2001 - 09:44:53 PDT

  • Next message: Russell: "MAY21-22.OBS"

    Again, please check my Decay Watch page for more details, including
    predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11252 = 79-  5 B = Meteor 1-29 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 22 14:44     May 24 11:46 +-1d        43.8 N    52.5 W
    SatEvo     May 22 16:10     May 24 05:20 +-9h
    
    Latest elset:
    Meteor 1-29 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.1       192 x 181 km
    1 11252U 79005B   01142.59890034  .02287382  24004-5  42134-3 0  8148
    2 11252  97.2182 176.2904 0008475 229.7264 276.7267 16.32264128228292
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
    
    Note: the latest elset shows this running only 0.003 sec late against 
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14313 = 83- 90 A = Molniya 3-21
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 22 02:39     May 22 02:28 +-7m        39.9 S    17.4 E
    SatEvo     May 22 16:20     May 22 01:19 -10+150m    49.8 S   150.7 E
    
    Final elsets:
    Molniya 3-21                                     1562 x 77 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01141.75279272  .99999999  22358-4  14010-2 0  5620
    2 14313  62.1121  89.7399 1031480 269.7784 200.0891 14.21749001 79928
    Molniya 3-21                                     938 x 77 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01141.94811362  .19712253  70348-5  10000-3 0  5664
    2 14313  62.1082  89.0689 0625323 269.2564 152.8203 15.19474445 79953
    Molniya 3-21                                     656 x 76 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01142.01820600  .35247183  78832-5  13629-3 0  5678
    2 14313  62.0916  88.7824 0429845 269.8120 181.2286 15.67647205 79967
    
    Note: The final three published elsets (above) show this running 
    7 sec early, 49 sec late and 145 sec late against the prediction 
    I posted yesterday. It is possible that this suffered a partial 
    breakup during this period, leading to a reduction in drag and 
    a prolonged lifetime. Judging from the elset numbers, three elsets 
    were generated but are not (yet) available via OIG. An evolution 
    through the above three elsets leads a decay near perigee on the 
    last one, to the south of Australia.  It is possible, though, that 
    it survived for one more rev as SpaceCom suggests.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26502 = 00- 49 F = Raduga-1 5 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 22 04:30     May 23 03:51 +-14h       33.0 S    66.7 E
    SatEvo     May 22 16:25     May 23 03:35 +-7h         9.5 N    22.9 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga-1 5 aux motor                             1621 x 101 km
    1 26502U 00049F   01142.52847462  .90637643  10895-4  20113-2 0  3824
    2 26502  46.5615 149.6460 1050095 135.3611 309.9128 14.09583314  8710
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga-1 5 aux motor                             1264 x 99 km
    1 26502U 00049F   01142.79178210 1.20931190  59731+0  21457-2 0 93827
    2 26502  46.5418 148.4162 0824962 136.5813 230.2168 14.63696662  8750
    Raduga-1 5 aux motor                             746 x 94 km
    1 26502U 00049F   01143.05731431 2.30990200  34711+1  24505-2 0 93825
    2 26502  46.5144 147.0482 0478921 137.9401 225.8362 15.48923940  8790
    Raduga-1 5 aux motor                             545 x 92 km
    1 26502U 00049F   01143.12092936 3.42597557  96589+1  27378-2 0 93827
    2 26502  46.5058 146.6892 0338059 138.2969 224.3295 15.84118698  8801
    
    Note: The latest elset shows it running 9 min early against 
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I show it decaying southbound over
    central Africa on the last of these SatEvo-predicted revs.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26774 = 01- 21 B = Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 22 14:47     May 22 16:17 +-1h        13.4 S    75.7 W
    SatEvo     May 22 16:35     May 22 15:25 +-18h        0.0     105.6 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r                         142 x 139 km
    1 26774U 01021B   01142.58206515  .23192005  12698-4  28894-3 0   144
    2 26774  51.6220 217.5269 0002223 335.7708  24.3424 16.49604369   274
    
    Note: The next-to-latest elset shows this running 33 sec late against
    yesterday's preliminary prediction. I show it decaying near the
    northbound equator crossing at the end of the above orbit, placing it
    over Indonesia
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue May 22 2001 - 09:55:39 PDT