Decay watch: 2001 May 21

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon May 21 2001 - 10:20:18 PDT

  • Next message: Tristan Cools: "Correct designations of Mars Odyssey and Ekran M18 ?"

    To save bandwidth, predicted elsets for these (now) four decayers are on
    my decay watch page.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11252 = 79-  5 B = Meteor 1-29 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 20 15:10     May 24 15:18 +-2d        73.2 S    92.1 E
    SatEvo     May 21 16:25     May 24 04:36 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    Meteor 1-29 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.1       204 x 193 km
    1 11252U 79005B   01141.53020574  .01770821  23773-5  49482-3 0  8087
    2 11252  97.2228 175.0886 0007717 216.0641 144.0118 16.27800018228127
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 7 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14313 = 83- 90 A = Molniya 3-21
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 21 14:36     May 21 23:42 +-6h        51.7 S   172.7 E
    SatEvo     May 21 16:35     May 21 23:44 +-4h        52.0 S   170.6 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-21                                     2137 x 81 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01141.54836169  .18068067  18613-4  18855-3 0  5604
    2 14313  62.1230  90.3433 1372711 269.4788 263.4023 13.40114089 79890
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Molniya 3-21                                     1165 x 78 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01141.86803454 3.05708839  36652+1  18634-2 0 95564
    2 14313  61.9775  89.3629 0776571 270.1625  80.9491 14.82487181 79946
    Molniya 3-21                                     878 x 76 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01141.93488649 4.13693259  78778+1  19470-2 0 95560
    2 14313  61.9638  89.1266 0584731 270.1887  83.1156 15.29561949 79955
    Molniya 3-21                                     466 x 74 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01141.99951363 8.55551976  50000+2  23714-2 0 95568
    2 14313  61.9367  88.8785 0294804 270.2166  86.4058 16.01706508 79967
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this 3 minutes late against yesterday's
    prediction. I expect this to decay near perigee on the penultimate
    of these SatEvo-predicted revs, far to the S of New Zealand.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26502 = 00- 49 F = Raduga-1 5 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 21 04:43     May 23 05:04 +-1d        18.0 N     7.7 W
    SatEvo     May 21 16:45     May 23 08:43 +-14h
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga-1 5 aux motor                             2721 x 101 km
    1 26502U 00049F   01141.40583691  .51043097  13167-4  16121-2 0  3764
    2 26502  46.6007 154.0772 1681411 131.2026 340.9938 12.62909385  8563
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: The latest elset shows it running 3.4 min early against 
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26774 = 01- 21 B = Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 21 13:55     May 23 20:45 +-1d         6.0 N    22.9 E
    SatEvo     May 21 16:50     May 22 13:57 +-18h        0.0     127.9 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r                         198 x 182 km
    1 26774U 01021B   01141.48350656  .01853065  12178-4  35235-3 0    65
    2 26774  51.6304 223.7088 0012298  42.3981 317.7968 16.30934834    97
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r                         154 x 146 km
    1 26774U 01021B   01142.46038924  .21605256  44990+0  50282-3 0 90064
    2 26774  51.6263 218.2123 0005706  46.5007 313.5466 16.46040506   257
    Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r                         144 x 138 km
    1 26774U 01021B   01142.52103923  .36961796  14402+1  46156-3 0 90064
    2 26774  51.6254 217.8657 0004482  46.7595 313.2778 16.49406417   262
    
    Note: The rocket enters eclipse while eastbound near 51 deg S, just 
    beyond southern apex. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near 47 deg N 
    before dawn. An evolution through the available elsets for this 
    object suggests that it is decaying more rapidly than indicated by 
    SpaceCom's first decay warning. However, it is too early to be sure 
    and my prediction (for decay near a northbound equator crossing
    over Indonesia) is therefore uncertain. 
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon May 21 2001 - 10:32:12 PDT