To save bandwidth, predicted elsets for these (now) four decayers are on
my decay watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11252 = 79- 5 B = Meteor 1-29 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 20 15:10 May 24 15:18 +-2d 73.2 S 92.1 E
SatEvo May 21 16:25 May 24 04:36 +-15h
Latest elset:
Meteor 1-29 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.1 204 x 193 km
1 11252U 79005B 01141.53020574 .01770821 23773-5 49482-3 0 8087
2 11252 97.2228 175.0886 0007717 216.0641 144.0118 16.27800018228127
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: The latest elset has this 7 sec late against yesterday's
prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #14313 = 83- 90 A = Molniya 3-21
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 21 14:36 May 21 23:42 +-6h 51.7 S 172.7 E
SatEvo May 21 16:35 May 21 23:44 +-4h 52.0 S 170.6 E
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-21 2137 x 81 km
1 14313U 83090A 01141.54836169 .18068067 18613-4 18855-3 0 5604
2 14313 62.1230 90.3433 1372711 269.4788 263.4023 13.40114089 79890
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(..ends)
Molniya 3-21 1165 x 78 km
1 14313U 83090A 01141.86803454 3.05708839 36652+1 18634-2 0 95564
2 14313 61.9775 89.3629 0776571 270.1625 80.9491 14.82487181 79946
Molniya 3-21 878 x 76 km
1 14313U 83090A 01141.93488649 4.13693259 78778+1 19470-2 0 95560
2 14313 61.9638 89.1266 0584731 270.1887 83.1156 15.29561949 79955
Molniya 3-21 466 x 74 km
1 14313U 83090A 01141.99951363 8.55551976 50000+2 23714-2 0 95568
2 14313 61.9367 88.8785 0294804 270.2166 86.4058 16.01706508 79967
Note: The latest elset shows this 3 minutes late against yesterday's
prediction. I expect this to decay near perigee on the penultimate
of these SatEvo-predicted revs, far to the S of New Zealand.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26502 = 00- 49 F = Raduga-1 5 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 21 04:43 May 23 05:04 +-1d 18.0 N 7.7 W
SatEvo May 21 16:45 May 23 08:43 +-14h
Latest elset:
Raduga-1 5 aux motor 2721 x 101 km
1 26502U 00049F 01141.40583691 .51043097 13167-4 16121-2 0 3764
2 26502 46.6007 154.0772 1681411 131.2026 340.9938 12.62909385 8563
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: The latest elset shows it running 3.4 min early against
yesterday's SatEvo prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26774 = 01- 21 B = Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 21 13:55 May 23 20:45 +-1d 6.0 N 22.9 E
SatEvo May 21 16:50 May 22 13:57 +-18h 0.0 127.9 E
Latest elset:
Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r 198 x 182 km
1 26774U 01021B 01141.48350656 .01853065 12178-4 35235-3 0 65
2 26774 51.6304 223.7088 0012298 42.3981 317.7968 16.30934834 97
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(..ends)
Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r 154 x 146 km
1 26774U 01021B 01142.46038924 .21605256 44990+0 50282-3 0 90064
2 26774 51.6263 218.2123 0005706 46.5007 313.5466 16.46040506 257
Progress M1-6 Soyuz-FG r 144 x 138 km
1 26774U 01021B 01142.52103923 .36961796 14402+1 46156-3 0 90064
2 26774 51.6254 217.8657 0004482 46.7595 313.2778 16.49406417 262
Note: The rocket enters eclipse while eastbound near 51 deg S, just
beyond southern apex. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near 47 deg N
before dawn. An evolution through the available elsets for this
object suggests that it is decaying more rapidly than indicated by
SpaceCom's first decay warning. However, it is too early to be sure
and my prediction (for decay near a northbound equator crossing
over Indonesia) is therefore uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon May 21 2001 - 10:32:12 PDT