Decay watch: 2001 May 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue May 15 2001 - 13:25:15 PDT

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    SpaceCom has posted decay notices for both LEO objects from the
    PanAmSat-10 launch.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26767 = 01- 19 C = PAS-10 Proton r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 15 19:02     May 16 20:13 +-16h        0.4 N   107.6 W
    SatEvo     May 15 20:15     May 17 12:44 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    PAS-10 Proton r1                                 207 x 151 km
    1 26767U 01019B   01135.71512868  .04260223  12250-4  28978-3 0    33
    2 26767  51.6013 256.2749 0042676 275.2551  84.3987 16.35237690   116
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: The SatEvo prediction is based on a poor spread of elsets
    and is uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26768 = 01- 19 C = PAS-10 Proton casing (aka platform)
    
    Decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 15 14:59     May 15 16:44 +-1h        38.9 S     6.8 W
    SatEvo     May 15 18:15     May 15 16:29 +-30m       14.7 S    32.3 W
    
    Final elset:
    PAS-10 Proton casing                             141 x 129 km
    1 26768U 01019C   01135.65341164  .99999999  12698-4  83189-3 0    52
    2 26768  51.5875 256.6200 0009498 253.3318 106.6143 16.51691672   104
    
    Note: I show this decaying a little beyond the southbound equator
    crossing on the above orbit. This puts it over the Atlantic to the E 
    of Brazil. SpaceCom's final notice has not yet appeared.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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