SatEvo decay list #116

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun May 13 2001 - 07:28:24 PDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Re: SatEvo decay list #116"

    SatEvo decay list #116 (issued 2001 May 13)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2001 July 10, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including the ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for some 8,400 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (2001) ----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     15553   69- 82 KS  OPS 1807 ThAg deb                 April 15
      5143   71- 31 B   Meteor 1-8 r                      April 18.49
     15957   85- 70 E   Raduga 16 aux motor               April 18.60
     21841   70- 25 QM  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb                 April 20.5
     26748   00- 56 H   Cosmos 2372 deb                   April 21.3
     16547   64-  6 L   Elektron 1 deb                    April 21.5
     24359   94- 29 PL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 23.6
      5393   70- 25 KY  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb                 April 25.7 Note 1
     16546   64-  6 K   Elektron 1 deb                    April 26.9
     24204   94- 29 KF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 27.9
     26653   99- 57 LK  CBERS LM4 deb                     April 28.0
     10960   77- 53 B   NTS 2 Altas r                     April 28.56
     26750   01- 17 B   Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r             April 29.65
       647   61- 15 GY  Transit 4A deb                    April 29.7
     25107   97- 82 D   Iridium 48                          May  5.23
     15027   84- 55 A   Cosmos 1569                         May  7.13
     26319   99- 57 HC  CBERS LM4 deb                       May  8.9 Note 1
     26255   99- 57 ER  CBERS LM4 deb                       May 10.4 Note 1
     16235   85-105 A   Cosmos 1701                         May 10.58
     11458   79- 67 B   Cosmos 1116 r                       May 10.74
     11252   79-  5 B   Meteor 1-29 r              May 23
     20614   90- 43 H   Macsat 1 Scout deb         May 24
     26424   99- 57 JV  CBERS LM4 deb              May 24
     14313   83- 90 A   Molniya 3-21               May 25
     26502   00- 49 G   Raduga-1 5 aux motor       May 25
     17094   79- 17 JH  Solwind deb                May 26
     26447   99- 57 KU  CBERS LM4 deb             June  2
     23518   95-  9 H   Glonass 71 aux motor      June  5
     26723   01- 10 B   STS-102 deb (PAD)         June  5
      8298   74- 89 BF  Thorad Delta 1 deb        June  6
     17471   86- 19 HJ  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb       June  6
     23989   94- 29 AK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  6
     19641   87- 20 CF  Cosmos 1823 deb           June  8
     22424   92- 93 DR  Cosmos 2272 Zenit deb     June  8
     24337   94- 29 NN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  9
      1347   65- 20 S   Cosmos 61 deb             June 10
     24000   94- 29 AV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 11
      7487   73- 86 FT  NOAA 3 Delta 1 deb        June 12
      6085   70- 89 CT  Cosmos 374 deb            June 13
     23071   89- 89 BS  COBE deb                  June 14
     26457   99- 57 HU  CBERS LM4 deb             June 14
      3524   68- 91 M   Cosmos 249 deb            June 16
     24247   94- 29 LW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 17
     26335   99- 57 HU  CBERS LM4 deb             June 19
     26337   99- 57 HW  CBERS LM4 deb             June 19
     20611   90- 43 E   Macsat 1 Scout deb        June 22
     26334   99- 57 HT  CBERS LM4 deb             June 24
     25361   94- 29 ADN STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 25
     24767   94- 29 ABM STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 26
      3467   65- 82 PY  OV2-1/LCS2 deb            June 27
     24158   94- 29 HH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 27
      4726   70- 91 X   Cosmos 375 deb            June 28
     12750   81- 53 CT  Cosmos 1275 deb           June 29
     24976   94- 29 ACJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July  1
     26295   99- 57 GH  CBERS LM4 deb             July  1
     23099   94- 27 A   SROSS-C2                  July  2
     26314   99- 57 GX  CBERS LM4 deb             July  4
     22048   92- 43 F   Gorizont 26 aux motor     July  5
     10181   77- 65 K   GMS 1 Delta deb           July  6
     20224   64-  6 AD  Elektron 1 deb            July  7
     26404   00- 39 A   NINA/MITA O               July  7
     24323   96- 56 B   GPS 2-27 r1               July  9
     26739   01- 13 C   Mars Odyssey Delta 2 r    July  9
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2           July 15
     18980   88- 22 A   Molniya 1-72              July 17
     22933   93- 78 D   DBS 1 r                   July 20
     11266   79- 11 A   Cosmos 1076               July 31
     18127   87- 53 B   DMSP 5D-2 F8 r          August  1
     15955   85- 71 D   Cosmos 1675 r           August
     19544   88- 90 D   Molniya 3-33 r2         August
     23172   94- 38 E   Cosmos 2282 aux motor   August
     14319   83- 90 D   Molniya 3-21 r2      September
     14516   83-114 A   Molniya 1-59         September
    
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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