Decay watch: 2001 May 7

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon May 07 2001 - 00:44:23 PDT

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    Object: #15027 = 84- 55 A = Cosmos 1569
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  7 04:13     May  7 03:14 +-15m       13.0 S    16.4 E
    SatEvo     May  7 07:30     May  7 03:07 -2+15m       0.0      10.3 E
    
    Final elsets:
    Cosmos 1569                                      512 x 76 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01127.06167440  .12677474  78657-5  42237-4 0  9017
    2 15027  62.1803 102.3935 0327186 249.2527 248.5980 15.92961819124899
    Cosmos 1569                                      175 x 51 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01127.11301274  .71855109  88759-5  17116-4 0  9029
    2 15027  62.1718 102.1608 0095323 241.4976 197.8690 16.60038270124904
    
    Note: This survived for two or three orbits longer than I expected and
    showed a considerable decrease in drag over that period. I suspect that
    it lost some appendages (solar panels, antennae?) at an earlier perigee
    so that its effective cross sectional area fell, making it less
    susceptible to drag and giving it a stay of execution. The final elset,
    with its remarkably low perigee, corresponds to a passage near apogee
    over Canada. Like SpaceCom, I think that decay was most likely as it
    tracked southwards across the equator from Gabon to Angola in Africa a
    few minutes later.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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