_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #15027 = 84- 55 A = Cosmos 1569
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 3 11:44 May 3 23:43 +-23h 59.8 S 175.3 W
SatEvo May 5 19:15 May 6 19:20 +-10h 60.4 S 161.6 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1569 3666 x 76 km
1 15027U 84055A 01125.64652778 .80577633 17579-5 87878-3 0 8679
2 15027 62.2122 106.4460 2175572 247.4271 301.9755 11.58838527124701
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 1569 3239 x 79 km
1 15027U 84055A 01125.85014722 1.08121488 21313+0 12919-2 0 98674
2 15027 62.2050 106.0055 1965619 247.4681 90.6140 12.04976004124738
Cosmos 1569 2915 x 79 km
1 15027U 84055A 01126.01406551 1.20035414 27406+0 13379-2 0 98675
2 15027 62.1845 105.6278 1800598 247.5038 92.4957 12.42291129124750
Cosmos 1569 2411 x 79 km
1 15027U 84055A 01126.25050977 1.44839610 44663+0 14315-2 0 98679
2 15027 62.1505 105.0393 1529326 247.5605 95.5613 13.04449768124781
Cosmos 1569 1665 x 78 km
1 15027U 84055A 01126.54728485 2.09828667 12389+1 15287-2 0 98679
2 15027 62.1015 104.2041 1095065 247.6435 100.3988 14.06503203124821
Cosmos 1569 947 x 74 km
1 15027U 84055A 01126.75412679 3.75232977 59093+1 16337-2 0 98674
2 15027 62.0603 103.5236 0633239 247.7135 105.4533 15.18442395124852
Cosmos 1569 591 x 72 km
1 15027U 84055A 01126.81926833 6.25110712 27967+2 18382-2 0 98671
2 15027 62.0368 103.2797 0386123 247.7391 108.1215 15.79631527124862
Note: The latest elset shows this running only 7.2 minutes late against
yesterday's prediction. SpaceCom has still to renew its decay estimate.
I predict that this will decay near southern apex over the far-southern
Pacific Ocean on the penultimate of these SatEvo predicted orbits,
though the uncertainty remains several revs.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25107 = 97- 82 D = Iridium 48 "tum"
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 5 06:35 May 5 06:13 +-17m 10.5 N 7.3 E
SatEvo May 5 17:00 May 5 05:37 -20+40m 41.2 N 161.1 W
Final elsets:
Iridium 48 tum 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.0 d 10 152 x 140 km
1 25107U 97082D 01125.16655722 .31022734 -13915-5 52663-3 0 942
2 25107 86.3839 143.1709 0009852 250.6525 109.5653 16.47499983183874
Iridium 48 tum 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.0 d 10 137 x 105 km
1 25107U 97082D 01125.22719644 .63447786 -11180-5 24164-3 0 954
2 25107 86.3514 143.1057 0024396 352.3616 8.0779 16.57096436183881
Note: The final elset is suspect - the eccentricity appears much
higher than it should have been. It is worth noting that the published
elsets for the preceding orbits showed it running respectively 0.1 sec
early and 5 sec late against the prediction I posted yesterday.
I put the decay somewhat earlier than does SpaceCom - possibly
northbound over the NW Pacific though it may have survived to decay
near the following southbound equator crossing at 06:10 UTC over the
Gulf of Guinea near 7.3 deg E.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat May 05 2001 - 12:32:13 PDT