Decay watch: 2001 May 5

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat May 05 2001 - 12:30:40 PDT

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    Object: #15027 = 84- 55 A = Cosmos 1569
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  3 11:44     May  3 23:43 +-23h       59.8 S   175.3 W
    SatEvo     May  5 19:15     May  6 19:20 +-10h       60.4 S   161.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1569                                      3666 x 76 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01125.64652778  .80577633  17579-5  87878-3 0  8679
    2 15027  62.2122 106.4460 2175572 247.4271 301.9755 11.58838527124701
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 1569                                      3239 x 79 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01125.85014722 1.08121488  21313+0  12919-2 0 98674
    2 15027  62.2050 106.0055 1965619 247.4681  90.6140 12.04976004124738
    Cosmos 1569                                      2915 x 79 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.01406551 1.20035414  27406+0  13379-2 0 98675
    2 15027  62.1845 105.6278 1800598 247.5038  92.4957 12.42291129124750
    Cosmos 1569                                      2411 x 79 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.25050977 1.44839610  44663+0  14315-2 0 98679
    2 15027  62.1505 105.0393 1529326 247.5605  95.5613 13.04449768124781
    Cosmos 1569                                      1665 x 78 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.54728485 2.09828667  12389+1  15287-2 0 98679
    2 15027  62.1015 104.2041 1095065 247.6435 100.3988 14.06503203124821
    Cosmos 1569                                      947 x 74 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.75412679 3.75232977  59093+1  16337-2 0 98674
    2 15027  62.0603 103.5236 0633239 247.7135 105.4533 15.18442395124852
    Cosmos 1569                                      591 x 72 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.81926833 6.25110712  27967+2  18382-2 0 98671
    2 15027  62.0368 103.2797 0386123 247.7391 108.1215 15.79631527124862
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running only 7.2 minutes late against
    yesterday's prediction. SpaceCom has still to renew its decay estimate.
    I predict that this will decay near southern apex over the far-southern
    Pacific Ocean on the penultimate of these SatEvo predicted orbits,
    though the uncertainty remains several revs.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25107 = 97- 82 D = Iridium 48 "tum"
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  5 06:35     May  5 06:13 +-17m       10.5 N     7.3 E
    SatEvo     May  5 17:00     May  5 05:37 -20+40m     41.2 N   161.1 W
    
    Final elsets:
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       152 x 140 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01125.16655722  .31022734 -13915-5  52663-3 0   942
    2 25107  86.3839 143.1709 0009852 250.6525 109.5653 16.47499983183874
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       137 x 105 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01125.22719644  .63447786 -11180-5  24164-3 0   954
    2 25107  86.3514 143.1057 0024396 352.3616   8.0779 16.57096436183881
    
    Note: The final elset is suspect - the eccentricity appears much
    higher than it should have been. It is worth noting that the published 
    elsets for the preceding orbits showed it running respectively 0.1 sec 
    early and 5 sec late against the prediction I posted yesterday. 
    I put the decay somewhat earlier than does SpaceCom - possibly 
    northbound over the NW Pacific though it may have survived to decay 
    near the following southbound equator crossing at 06:10 UTC over the 
    Gulf of Guinea near 7.3 deg E.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat May 05 2001 - 12:32:13 PDT