Decay watch: 2001 May 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri May 04 2001 - 15:22:30 PDT

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "RE: Decay watch: 2001 May 4"

    From my latest Decay Watch page update.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15027 = 84- 55 A = Cosmos 1569
    With apologies for the typo that had this as 84 - 00 A yesterday
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  3 11:44     May  3 23:43 +-23h       59.8 S   175.3 W
    SatEvo     May  4 22:00     May  6 15:17 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1569                                      5103 x 82 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01124.79475590  .63241834  59147-6  12874-2 0  8548
    2 15027  62.2457 108.0538 2798146 247.0953 201.3645 10.21802514124614
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 26 minutes early against
    yesterday's prediction. SpaceCom has yet to renew its decay estimate.
    My prediction remains very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25107 = 97- 82 D = Iridium 48 "tum"
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  4 08:33     May  5 07:38 +-14h       21.7 N    14.9 W
    SatEvo     May  4 22:05     May  5 04:51 +-4h        32.4 S    29.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       191 x 185 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01124.63581316  .08028653 -14256-5  15742-2 0   899
    2 25107  86.3454 143.4715 0004314 254.6611 218.3188 16.31757743183781
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       179 x 174 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01124.86160760  .12041159  92936-1  15322-2 0 90890
    2 25107  86.3437 143.3416 0003562 253.6634 106.2974 16.36067212183820
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       174 x 170 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01124.92274740  .14073278  13150+0  15089-2 0 90899
    2 25107  86.3432 143.3063 0003312 253.3921 106.5715 16.37656443183830
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       169 x 165 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01124.98382279  .17118629  20485+0  14833-2 0 90890
    2 25107  86.3425 143.2709 0003030 253.1203 106.8464 16.39547333183840
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       163 x 159 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01125.04481974  .22423437  38142+0  14354-2 0 90899
    2 25107  86.3418 143.2354 0002689 252.8481 107.1224 16.41925492183859
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       153 x 150 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01125.10571341  .34077209  95294+0  10318-2 0 90896
    2 25107  86.3408 143.1999 0002233 252.5753 107.4003 16.45254763183865
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       136 x 134 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01125.16644324  .90198752  70942+1  87529-3 0 90896
    2 25107  86.3392 143.1642 0001429 252.3015 107.6829 16.51626749183870
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 4 sec late against yesterday's 
    prediction. I predict that this will decay southbound over South Africa
    following the southbound equator crossing on the final SatEvo-predicted
    orbit above. That orbit carries it northwards over the eastern Pacific
    and southwards over Finland, Eastern Europe and directly southwards
    from Egypt.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri May 04 2001 - 15:23:54 PDT