Decay watch: 2001 May 3

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu May 03 2001 - 13:10:08 PDT

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    After some recent very erratic elsets, SpaceCom has posted the first
    decay notices for Cosmos 1569. In fact, I estimate a much later decay.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15027 = 84- 00 A = Cosmos 1569
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  3 11:44     May  3 23:43 +-23h       59.8 S   175.3 W
    SatEvo     May  3 20:00     May  6 06:37 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1569                                      6836 x 84 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01123.78494618  .04714953  54012-5  13787-3 0  8438
    2 15027  62.2051 109.5818 3431112 246.4208 323.5447  8.89684120124513
    
    SatEvo prediction: 
    Cosmos 1569                                      6503 x 86 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01124.04197511  .47449343  36743-1  14114-2 0 98389
    2 15027  62.2510 109.2789 3317107 246.7182  75.2388  9.12696209555610
    Cosmos 1569                                      6210 x 86 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01124.25899005  .49961835  40541-1  14264-2 0 98383
    2 15027  62.2495 108.9772 3214354 246.7454  76.4694  9.33826658555633
    Cosmos 1569                                      5775 x 86 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01124.57531394  .54138153  47731-1  14517-2 0 98386
    2 15027  62.2469 108.5156 3055926 246.7871  78.3580  9.66720422555663
    Cosmos 1569                                      5488 x 86 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01124.78017599  .57243652  53690-1  14705-2 0 98389
    2 15027  62.2450 108.2015 2947142 246.8155  79.6494  9.89526185555684
    Cosmos 1569                                      5060 x 86 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01125.07860757  .62496382  64244-1  15028-2 0 98386
    2 15027  62.2424 107.7201 2778575 246.8591  81.6398 10.25212211555716
    
    Note: My prediction is uncertain and the perigee height may be a
    little high.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25107 = 97- 82 D = Iridium 48 "tum"
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  2 11:47     May  5 10:24 +-2d        64.2 N    62.7 W
    SatEvo     May  3 18:10     May  5 03:59 +-9h
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 48 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d   10       221 x 219 km
    1 25107U 97082D   01123.44639336  .02828342  00000-0  15295-2 0   844
    2 25107  86.3537 144.1500 0002030 246.4891 113.6887 16.19855704397057
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 7 sec early against
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu May 03 2001 - 13:11:38 PDT