Decay watch: 2000 May 24

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed May 24 2000 - 14:34:17 PDT

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    #20496 = 90- 15 A = LACE (USA 51)
    
    This decay accelerated sharply over the past day, perhaps as a result of
    the intense geomagnetic storm that has been raging. LACE has already
    decayed, at May 24 14:27 UTC +-2h near 18.2 N, 60.5 E, according to
    SpaceCom's final notice. This puts it northbound over the Arabian Sea on
    a track that would have carried it onwards over northern India.
             _________________________________________
    
    #25235 = 98- 12 C = SNOE Pegasus rocket
    
    Latest decay predictions:
            SpaceCom: May 25 05:18 +-14h       35.5 S    83.5 W
            SatEvo  : May 25 05:52 +-2h         3.6 N    92.1 E
    Despite the geomagnetic storm, the latest elset...
    SNOE Pegasus r   1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.0       202 x 194 km
    1 25235U 98012C   00145.81584494  .09923823  27094-5  27494-2 0  8507
    2 25235  97.6393  63.1599 0006262 175.3501 184.7833 16.27919559124158
    ... has this running only 18 sec early against yesterday's prediction. I
    show it decaying close to a northbound equator crossing over the eastern
    Indian Ocean at May 25 05:52 +-2h near 3.6 N, 92.1 E. Earlier on that
    orbit there is a southbound pass over the Gulf of St Lawrence and Nova
    Scotia at 04:56 UTC that continues over the Caribbean to Bogota,
    Colombia, at 05:06 and Lima, Peru, at 05:11. SpaceCom predicts the decay
    further south on that leg, over the eastern Pacific to the W of Chile at
    May 25 05:18 +-14h (35.5 S, 83.5 W). My predicted elset for the
    beginning of the final rev:
    SNOE Pegasus r   1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.0       154 x 150 km
    1 25235U 98012C   00146.18315769  .61255107  28780+1  18782-2 0 98503
    2 25235  97.6339  63.6008 0003073 173.8379 186.1659 16.45089136124219
    
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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