Decay watch: 2000 May 20

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat May 20 2000 - 14:54:39 PDT

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    #20338 = 89- 94 A = Molniya 3-36
    
    Final decay analyses:
            SpaceCom: May 19 20:14 +-7m        56.9 S   115.5 E (updated)
            SatEvo  : May 19 20:03 +-10m       53.8 S    29.7 E (unchanged)
    No further elsets appeared. Like Harro Zimmer, I had particular
    difficulty with the final elset and I think his suggestion that parts
    may have broken away at the previous perigee is a good one. I have
    slightly corrected my predicted elset for the final orbit to:
    Molniya 3-36                                     547 x 76 km
    1 20338U 89094A   00140.79247921 4.59537137  16797+2  16077-2 0 98954
    2 20338  63.3578 345.3565 0351906 252.8618 103.2551 15.86830611 77861
             _________________________________________
    
    #22726 = 93- 48 D = InSat 2B Spelda
    
    Final analyses for this decay:
            SpaceCom: May 20 14:12 +-2h         5.9 N    65.2 W
            SatEvo  : May 20 14:14 -10m+90m     6.9 N    46.5 W
    The final published elset for this is:
    InSat 2B Splda                                   381 x 130 km
    1 22726U 93048D   00141.43645949  .46418885 -32990-4  18200-2 0  8908
    2 22726   7.0836 330.0837 0189249  25.3148 214.5950 16.06734014 99494
    I think it likely that decay occurred a little beyond the perigee point
    on the following predicted orbit...
    InSat 2B Splda                                   245 x 117 km
    1 22726U 93048D   00141.58023984 1.41783124  45999+1  17287-2 0 98901
    2 22726   7.0827 328.8206 0097805  27.8119 332.7078 16.34269226 99516
    ... shortly after crossing eastwards over S America from Bogota,
    Colombia, at 14:07 UTC to Georgetown, Guyana, at 14:11. However, it is
    also quite possible that it survived to decay almost one orbit later,
    perhaps at 15:31 UTC near 4.0 N, 109.3 W, over the eastern Pacific.
    
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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