In the vain hope that further elsets would appear for either of the
current decayers, I delayed updating my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
until now.
#20338 = 89- 94 A = Molniya 3-36
Latest decay analyses:
SpaceCom: May 19 20:15 +-1h 61.1 S 99.1 E
SatEvo : May 19 20:03 +-10m 53.8 S 29.7 E
The latest, and possibly final, elset...
Molniya 3-36 762 x 77 km
1 20338U 89094A 00140.74815059 .99999999 43892-5 10908-2 0 8958
2 20338 63.3731 345.5200 0503867 252.8608 213.1109 15.49121741 77859
...shows it 4.2 minutes early against the prediction I posted yesterday,
though this is after 23.2 hours during which time the orbital period had
fallen from 118.4 to 93.0 minutes. However, the residual is uncertain
because I'm certain that the published ndot2 term (0.99999999) is very
much an understatement of the true value, which may be closer to 3. The
stress at perigee on that orbit will be sufficiently high that it might
have broken up and decayed then, perhaps at 18:40 UTC +-10m near 63.2 S,
88.5 E. This would be over the Southern Ocean, far to the south of
India. Otherwise I show it surviving into a further orbit with decay
near the next perigee as given above, to the south of South Africa.
A possible elset for this final rev is:
Molniya 3-36 547 x 76 km
1 20338U 89094A 00140.79244404 4.59359892 16797+2 16075-2 0 98955
2 20338 63.3578 345.3566 0352035 252.8618 103.2537 15.86798289 77864
_________________________________________
#22726 = 93- 48 D = InSat 2B Spelda
Latest predictions:
SpaceCom: May 20 12:42 +-21h 5.8 N 44.2 W
SatEvo : May 20 17:14 +-10h 7.0 N 90.0 W
Fresh elsets for this are long overdue. The latest is:
InSat 2B Splda 828 x 142 km
1 22726U 93048D 00140.03685185 .16616626 -27858-4 26722-2 0 8780
2 22726 7.0907 341.5261 0499153 1.8772 275.4323 15.26930137 99272
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri May 19 2000 - 14:03:13 PDT