I have just posted a (big!) update to my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
with details on the following...
#603 = 63- 22 B = Transit 5A3 Scout X-3 r
Final estimates for this decay:
SpaceCom: May 17 14:19 +-2h near 22.7 S, 61.7 W
SatEvo : May 17 13:22 +-45m 10.6 S, 131.1 E
I estimate that this decayed while northbound over Indonesia, just after
crossing Australia, though it is possible that re-entry may have
occurred half an orbit earlier or later near a southbound crossing. My
estimated elset for the start of the final rev:
Transit 5A3 Scout X-3 r 144 x 131 km
1 00603U 63022B 00138.49809182 .86232800 10141+2 86458-3 0 96329
2 00603 89.8657 207.1809 0009912 261.4674 98.4202 16.50793972979203
_________________________________________
#10135 = 77- 61 B = Cosmos 925 r
Final estimates for this decay:
SpaceCom: May 17 03:49 +-2h near 73.9 S, 139.7 E
SatEvo : May 17 03:27 +-40m 0.0 , 111.9 E
I show decay near a southbound equator crossing over Borneo. My
predicted elset for the final equator crossing is:
Cosmos 925 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 11 119 x 112 km
1 10135U 77061B 00138.11370463 .99587808 22059+2 34006-3 0 97657
2 10135 81.1809 218.8404 0005878 252.3318 107.6040 16.59086701260186
_________________________________________
#20338 = 89- 94 A = Molniya 3-36
Current decay predictions:
SpaceCom: May 19 14:05 +-2d near 56.5 S, 126.7 E
SatEvo : May 19 18:34 +-15h
SpaceCom appears to have lost this for a while yesterday. The latest
elset has it 4.2 min late on the prediction I made two days ago -
satisfactory, considering that the orbital period had decreased from
179.5 to 138.9 minutes in the interval.
_________________________________________
#22726 = 93- 48 D = InSat 2B Spelda
Current predictions:
SpaceCom: May 20 00:22 +-2d near 7.0 N, 175.0 E
SatEvo : May 20 14:05 +-16h
_________________________________________
#23098 = 94- 26 B = USA 103 Titan 4 Centaur r
No elsets were available for this until very recently; SpaceCom has just
posted the first warning for a decay tomorrow.
Current predictions:
SpaceCom: May 18 11:44 +-10h near 1.7 N, 1.6 W
SatEvo : May 18 11:19 +-6h 61.1 S, 110.4 W
I put decay near perigee (and southern apex) on the penultimate
predicted orbit, above. SpaceCom predicts decay a little further only
near the following northbound equator crossing. If it continues, it
would cross E Europe from Malta at 11:54 UTC to Kiev at 11:59 and Moscow
at 12:01.
_________________________________________
#26114 = 00- 17 B = IMAGE Delta 2 r
Final estimates for this decay:
SpaceCom: May 17 08:23 +-2h near 43.9 N, 166.0 W
SatEvo : May 17 08:03 -10m+2h 19.8 S, 160.6 W
I show this decaying while northbound over the central Pacific, a little
before SpaceCom's point. There is a chance that it could have survived
more than one orbit more if it were subject to the effective decrease in
drag as its perigee fell through the atmospheric flow transition region.
It might even have survived to pass southwards over Ireland at about
10:04 UTC, but the fact that no further elsets appeared seems to rule
this out. My predicted elset for the final rev:
IMAGE Del r 7.0 2.0 0.0 5.5 d 7.8 155 x 117 km
1 26114U 00017B 00138.27811483 .48181565 22297+1 34686-3 0 91461
2 26114 91.2793 195.0139 0029075 307.5084 52.2276 16.51169022 8044
_________________________________________
Latest elsets for objects yet to decay:
Molniya 3-36 4871 x 82 km
1 20338U 89094A 00138.73307815 .59065942 10485-5 11430-2 0 8704
2 20338 63.4293 350.3374 2703832 247.3169 256.2936 10.42005411 77608
InSat 2B Splda 1053 x 148 km
1 22726U 93048D 00138.79447615 .12895684 -25790-4 36699-2 0 8702
2 22726 7.1049 350.8954 0648821 343.5139 14.4386 14.89273654 99095
USA 103 Titan Centaur r 2276 x 82 km
1 23098U 94026B 00138.78498821 .99999999 84829-5 11542-2 0 86
2 23098 63.0752 51.3885 1451477 256.3785 87.0079 13.21609941 5307
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed May 17 2000 - 14:52:44 PDT